Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
668 FXUS62 KKEY 280249 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1049 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1032 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 An outflow boundary from convection that developed many hours ago over Cuba manage to hold on and race northward across our waters this evening. The eastern end of this boundary was a little bit stronger and produced wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots as it moved across the Straits of Florida and across the Middle and Upper Keys into the Florida Bay. This end of the boundary also had with it showers and thunderstorms for a couple of hours before finally losing steam. Though the western end hardly produced any showers it maintained wind gusts near 25 knots as the line marched north. The outflow is currently moving across the outer Gulf waters and in its wake, winds are still generally 15 to 20 knots at all the marine reporting sites. Some of the hi-res models captured this "squall line" but had much slower by nearly 3 hours. Made adjustments to the winds for the coastal waters forecast given that we have moderate to fresh breezes occurring. Winds are taking a little bit longer to come down but even the hi-res showed winds sharply coming down over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, that was probably our best chance of rain for the overnight. This evenings sounding shows a pocket of relatively drier air below 850 and again above 700 mb, which likely restricted anything from blossoming on the western end. On the eastern end, Miami`s sounding showed a more moist profile and can explain why that activity outlasted for a couple more hours. Therefore no changes will be made to PoPs overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1032 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 An outflow boundary from earlier convection is located across the outer Gulf waters and moving generally northward at near 15 knots. Along and just behind this boundary we have seen a quick uptick in winds with moderate to fresh breezes occurring at all marine platforms. As such, Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are in place until winds sharply decrease over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, the low level ridge axis currently across the Florida Keys will shift north tonight through Saturday. As a result, breezes will become easterly Friday night and Saturday. Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes will persist Saturday night through Tuesday night. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1032 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 VFR conditions will prevail. A recent uptick in winds due to a passing outflow boundary will subside quickly over the next hour or two. Expect southerly winds to return to light to gentle breezes and continue into Friday. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest