820
FXUS62 KKEY 271027
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
627 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 425 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024
Just before midnight last night, Tropical Storm Helene made
landfall near Perry, Florida as a Category 4 Major Hurricane and
pushed north quickly into Georgia, but we are still seeing some
influence from the system here in the Florida Keys. Most of the
wind gust observations over the past couple of hours along the
island chain have been anywhere from 20 to 30 mph, but these
numbers will trend lighter throughout the day as Helene`s
influence on our area continues to diminish. Individual showers
along a band over the western waters are moving northeasterly at
roughly 30 knots, and we have been watching the motion of the
whole band crawl eastward toward the Lower Keys since last night.
Since it has been able to maintain its composure for hours on end,
island communities are likely to see this rainfall move through
eventually this morning.

As Helene is pulled northward, it will interact with another low
pressure system that is centered somewhere over western Tennessee.
Model guidance has depicted what can only be described as a dance
between the two systems over the next couple of days, but this
wont directly affect us here at home. What this will do is allow
for some ridging to build in, giving us the opportunity to see
some quieter weather conditions after we get past today. As this
ridging builds in, expect the return of warmer and muggy weather
and precipitation chances of 20 to 30 percent.

Approaching the middle of next week, there are some isolated
indications that there may be some unsettled weather conditions.
It is important to note that hurricane season has not left the
building yet, and this unsettled weather is showing up on forecast
models eight days from now. There is virtually zero confidence
with respect to what our sensible weather will look like near the
end of next week, so we will continue to broad brush relatively
quiet weather with hot and muggy afternoons and a chance for
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 425 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys waters.
From synopsis, strong southerly breezes will slacken rapidly
today and tonight as Tropical Storm Helene continues to push
farther inland across the southern U.S. High pressure building
back in to the region will help breezes slacken further and shift
easterly over the weekend, and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 425 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024
Southwest winds will continue to diminish as Hurricane Helene
accelerates to the north. Radar trends suggest the high chances for
rain suggested by MOS guidance is not reasonable. We removed VCSH at
06Z to account for this discrepancy.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  88  83  91  84 /  70  50  30  20
Marathon  89  82  92  83 /  70  50  30  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT today for FLZ076.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR
Data Acquisition.....DR

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