Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
659 FXUS62 KKEY 171856 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 256 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 We have returned to a more normal summertime regime today. Easterly winds have increased a few knots over the past couple of hours, and has started to pump in increased moisture across the area. Some light showers have begun to develop within the easterly flow. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies are being seen across the Florida Keys this afternoon. With more abundant sunshine today, temperatures have been able to reach near 90 degrees and dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Luckily, the higher winds are keeping some of the humidity at bay, but with these toasty summertime temperatures, it is still hard to stay cool outside. The main weather story this week will be the winds. High pressure centered off the Northeast coast and an expansive low (Central American Gyre) located across the Yucatan Peninsula will be the two features promoting these breezy conditions. The high will slowly sink southward through the week, while the broad low will slowly meander around in the same general area. The placement of these two features will maintain elevated winds through the end of the work week. Outside of the wind forecast, things are a little less clear-cut. The aforementioned CAG will spit out a disturbance, which will bring heavy rainfall to the western Gulf Coast and Texas. At the same time, an inverted trough riding along in the easterlies is forecast to develop some type of surface reflection by mid-week. An upper-level low associated with this feature may take a different course than the surface low and push across our area into the Gulf of Mexico while the weak surface low is expected to move ashore somewhere along the Southeast coast. What does this all mean for the Florida Keys? The exact trajectory of all of these features could influence the amount of moisture across our neck of the woods, the overall wind forecast late in the week, and the amount of upper-level support. MOS guidance is suggesting a wetter latter half of the week, but due to some of the uncertainties regarding the trajectory of the moisture and upper- level support, have capped PoPs at high end chance (40-50%) through the extended forecast. As confidence increases over the next few forecast cycles and we can more definitively narrow down the wettest periods, an increase in rain chances for a few days could be necessary. If the trend of the upper-low moving over our area continues, we also may need to increase thunder chances for a few forecast periods. Regardless, strong easterly flow will direct moisture across the region and just this by itself is likely enough to spur on above normal rain chances during the wet season. On top of the stronger flow, confluent flow in between the high in the Atlantic and the low near the Yucatan will also aid in yielding above normal rain chances for the next few days. Temperatures through the extended forecast will remain seasonable, with highs reaching near 90 degrees and lows dropping only as far as the lower 80s each day outside of any rain-cooled air. && .MARINE... Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, strong surface high pressure centered off the New England coast working in tandem with falling pressures over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche is expected to result in moderate to fresh breezes tonight through mid week. An area of low pressure may develop mid week a few hundred miles north of the central Bahamas towards mid week and move towards the north to central Florida coastline. This may result in a brief slackening of breezes before high pressure takes control again resulting in freshening east to southeasterly breezes late week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. KBYX radar shows some light showers/sprinkles moving into the Upper Keys which were moving to the southwest to west near 10 knots. The timing and placement of these showers remains uncertain for both terminals, therefore, VCSH was left out of the TAF for now. Near surface winds will be mainly east near 15 knots with frequent gusts to near 25 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1972, the daily record high temperature of 99F was recorded in Marathon. This is also the hottest temperature ever recorded in the month of June, and ties July 15th, 1987 for the hottest temperature ever recorded in the Marathon area. Temperature records for Marathon dates back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 83 89 82 89 / 30 40 30 40 Marathon 82 90 82 90 / 30 30 30 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest