Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
473 FXUS62 KKEY 221424 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1024 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 939 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 We are seeing another quiet start to the day along the Florida Keys as the KBYX radar is only detecting a few isolated showers outside of our forecast area, and visible satellite shows some cumulus clouds around the region. The 12Z sounding from this morning calculated 1.72" of precipitable water, but it looks like most of this moisture is confined to the lower levels (from the surface up to approximately 800 mb). The setup today looks very similar to yesterday with that lower level moisture in place and light northeasterly breezes. This just means that the set up for a reverse cloud line is in place, so we can`t rule out some shower activity along, or just offshore, the island chain. CAM guidance is also suggesting some afternoon activity coming off of the peninsula, and this will also help to trigger some activity. The takeaway is that even though things are starting out quiet, don`t be too surprised if the radar looks a little busier later. Will go ahead and maintain the 20 percent PoPs over the island chain as well as the increase to 30 percent for tonight. No changes or updates are needed to the current forecast at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 939 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Upper Keys, and a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Middle and Lower Keys, as above normal tides continue. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges, especially during the hours around high tide. From synopsis, light easterly flow across the Keys coastal waters today and tonight will gradually increase Monday through Tuesday, as high pressure builds along the Eastern Seaboard, and a tropical low slowly develops in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Heading through the middle and later part of the week, the forecast will depend on the potential development and movement of this low. At this time, we expect fresh to strong east to southeast breezes to develop late Tuesday, becoming southerly late in the week, with the strongest winds over western sections of the Keys waters. Mariners should continue to closely monitor the latest forecast updates during the next several days. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 939 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. A cloud line could potentially form this afternoon causing VCSH and at times possible TEMPOs for MVFR conditions, if showers produce over the terminals. Near surface winds are easterly and near 5 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1889, the daily record rainfall of 5.82" was recorded in Key West. Precipitation records for Key West date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 82 90 82 / 20 30 20 40 Marathon 90 82 90 81 / 20 30 20 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest