Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
145 FXUS62 KKEY 161412 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1012 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1011 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Note, added the aviation discussion && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1011 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A rather quiet morning persists across the Florida Keys. The KKEY 12Z sounding measured precipitable water values right around the 90th percentile for the day, complete with weak southwesterly winds. The daily concern is, once again, cloud line development across the islands. Available CAPE is more than sufficient to sustain heavy rainfall and once daily heating erodes lingering morning CIN, very little will prevent shower development. Breezes will remain light and periodically variable while the subtropical ridge remains weak, in part thanks to the development and movement northwest into the Carolina coastline of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight. This low pressure system will continue to modify the surrounding environment through shifting the flow of moisture, and any lingering dry air will start to be washed out as air with PWATs in excess of 2.5 inches lifts across the Keys. && .MARINE... Issued at 1011 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Upper Keys, and a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Middle and Lower Keys. Ponding on the typically favored roadways will peak at the times of the morning higher high tide in the Lower and Middle Keys, with little tidal cycle relief in the Upper Keys. Other than these minor coastal flooding hazards, are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, light and generally variable breezes will continue through Friday over the Florida Keys coastal waters. A developing low pressure system off the Carolina coast will generate a higher northerly swell off the Upper Keys for Tuesday and Wednesday. The low will deepen into an upper level trough and slowly slide south towards the Florida Peninsula by Friday. Unpredictability in the movement of this trough means confidence in the extended forecast is very low. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1011 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Despite tranquil conditions currently across the island chain, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to proliferate along a developing cumulus cloud line just north of the island chain late this morning or early afternoon. A window of VCSH is included in the TAFs for now, with possible amendments to account for likely short-lived impacts to visbilities and ceilings to be added as needed. Near-surface winds will remain out of the south to southwest through the TAF period, becoming light and variable at times. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest