Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
464 FXUS62 KKEY 270843 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 443 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 443 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Another quiet night has been ongoing across the Florida Keys, albeit very warm. KBYX radar remains quiet with GOES 16 Nighttime Microphysics showing some cumulus out there. Deep layered ridging remains dominant across the Keys early this morning. An Atlantic surface ridge extends westward into the Keys resulting in marine platforms observing southeast to south breezes of 5 to 10 knots with Island Chain communities observing 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures are also very warm along the Island Chain this morning in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. Big Pine Key is once again the cool spot dropping to 74 degrees early this morning due to radiational cooling effects similar to that of mainland Florida. .FORECAST... The forecast through mid week will continue to remain quiet as deep mean layer ridging remains in place across the Keys. Rain chances were removed from the forecast for today and tonight with slight chances maintained for Tuesday through Wednesday. Hi-res model guidance is showing a very subtle shortwave moving through the flow aloft which might try to touch off some showers and potentially thunderstorms to the waters to our north early Tuesday morning. However, this is low confidence and as it looks right now, any activity looks to miss the Island Chain. Outside of the slight chances (10%) for Tuesday to Wednesday, it will be hot and humid out again. Temperatures are expected to be in the lower 90s each afternoon with not much relief overnight with lows in the lower 80s. However, at this time, it continues to look like we will remain below Heat Advisory thresholds, but expect heat indices between 100-105 degrees. The pattern begins to subtly change Wednesday night through late week with slow height falls as troughing starts to overtake much of Florida. Details are still being ironed out but it looks like multiple weak upper level shortwaves will move through which may result in episodes of convection, especially for our friends to the north in South Florida. We will see just how much of this activity moves through the Keys. Right now, maintained 10% Wednesday night through Thursday night but there is the potential for this to go up in subsequent updates. Kept thunder out for the first two periods and then bring it in for Thursday night. Statistical guidance continues the uptick to thunder chances Thursday night onward. Lastly, model guidance is in disagreement on the timing of strengthening high pressure moving across the eastern United States while it builds southward into the Keys. Nevertheless, it appears the pattern may be shaping up for increasing rain chances, breezy conditions out of the northeast to east, and cooler temperatures and less humid conditions at some point during next weekend. Therefore, stay tuned as the forecast is likely to change at this juncture as we fine tune the timing and rain chances. .COASTAL FLOOD... For the next day or two, elevated water levels due to the lunar cycle will likely cause minor saltwater flooding across the Middle and Lower Keys. The most likely time for this will be during the high tide cycles this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon. As a result, a Coastal Flood Statement is in effect until 11 PM EDT this evening for the Middle and Lower Keys. && .MARINE... Issued at 443 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain light to gentle southeast to south breezes through Tuesday. Breezes will lull this afternoon and then surge one more time overnight into Tuesday where breezes may occasionally become moderate. As the high slides further east into the Atlantic, breezes will slacken and become variable for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another strengthening high pressure moves across the eastern United States and builds southward resulting in strengthening northeast to east breezes for late week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 443 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF period. Surface winds will continue to be light and Nil rain variable, but will assume a more uniform southeasterly direction and 5 to 10 knots after sunrise. && .CLIMATE... On this date in Keys Weather History, in 1984, the daily record rainfall of 2.95" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871. In 1959, the daily record rainfall of 6.60" was recorded in Marathon. Rainfall records for Marathon date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 83 92 82 / 0 0 10 0 Marathon 92 84 93 83 / 0 0 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest