Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
138 FXUS62 KKEY 271433 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1033 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1016 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Water vapor imagery highlights lower heights across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida, while the CIMMS low-level mean layer analysis depicts a broad ridge axis extending west across the Bahamas and Cuba. SFC winds at the Reef are from the south and 5 knots or less. The 12Z KKEY RAOB sampled 1.86" of PW, lower than yesterday at this time. A shallow layer of BL inhibition gives way to moderate ML instability. There is evidence in the satellite imagery of SFC southeasterlies nearing the island chain. The KBYX radar detects isolated showers near and west-southwest of the Lower Keys along the weak southeasterly convergence. The developing southeast to southerly steering flow does not bode well for accumulating theta-e along the island chain, and the advertised slight rain/thunder chances through the afternoon are in line with the MOS consensus. No changes are needed with the inherited forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1016 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 A weak ridge axis extending from the western Atlantic over the Straits of Florida will cause light to gentle breezes across Keys waters through tonight. Breezes may become variable during this period. By Friday, the ridge will shift north towards the Florida Peninsula and allow breezes to gradually back to southeasterlies by Friday night and easterlies on Saturday. High pressure rebuilding off the east coast over the weekend will build gentle to moderate breezes across the Keys waters. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1016 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today and into tonight. While a few showers have popped up on a boundary drifting northwest through the Straits of Florida, they are staying west of the island chain for now. Cloud line chances are dwindling as winds look to already be shifting towards the southeast to south with drier air progged to sweep in behind the previously mentioned boundary. Near surface winds will be light and generally out of the south early, becoming more southeast to south throughout the day. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1961, the daily record rainfall of 3.30" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records date back to 1871. $$ .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 92 84 91 / 20 30 30 40 Marathon 81 91 83 89 / 20 30 30 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest