Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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642 FXUS63 KLBF 230520 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1220 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost potential tonight as high pressure settles across the region and clouds decrease. - Fall like conditions for most of the upcoming week. Continued mostly dry, with a bit below temperatures to start the week warming to near or slightly above by the end of the week. - Fire weather concerns don`t appear to be a major issue for the coming week as both humidity and wind look to remain mostly in check. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Upper level low pressure is in the process of filling/weakening across southwest Nebraska into northwest Kansas this afternoon. The system will move east of the area tonight with skies rapidly clearing. Winds will be light as an axis of surface high pressure extends from central Nebraska to the Texas Panhandle. A dry airmass is in place, with dew points this afternoon ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s. As skies clear tonight the concern will turn to frost. Guidance has trended a little warmer that past couple of runs, and have to get down to around the 10th %tile to see much in the way of frost. It appears the favored areas for patchy front tonight will be mostly in the Platte River Valley, where lows in the mid 30s are expected. Out of the valley there looks to be just enough winds to generally hold lows in the upper 30s. Will not issue a frost advisory due to the limited areal coverage of the patchy frost. Will continue however to mention in the forecast for affected areas. The surface high pressure ridge axis will shift eastward into Iowa/eastern Kansas on Monday. Winds will shift to the south on the backside of the high. Near full sunshine is expected until afternoon when clouds will begin to increase across northwest Nebraska. This will be ahead of a strong shortwave that will be diving from Canada into the northern plains. There is some decent mid-level forcing associated with this system tomorrow night, but moisture is very limited. Still may manage to squeeze out a few isolated showers but little to no QPF is expected from the activity. A surface low will track across the Dakotas into Minnesota Monday night with a cold front crossing the area. Tuesday will be a bit breezy behind the front, but bufkit sounding profiles generally limit gusts to around 20 mph or so. CAA behind the front will be limited with the airmass Pacific in nature with highs in the lower to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 A rather complex upper level pattern looks to materialize Wednesday through into next weekend. The Monday night/Tuesday northern plains upper level system dives southward through the Mississippi Valley region Wednesday and stalls across Arkansas Thursday. Meanwhile what looks to be a potential hurricane moves ashore the northeast Gulf late in the week and in pulled northward and eventually gets absorbed into the aforementioned upper level low next weekend. Meanwhile, upper level ridging will persist west of these features across the Rockies into the western plains. This will continue the dry conditions and temperatures warming to near or slightly above average for the end of the week and next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 VFR conditions will continue at the KLBF and KVTN terminals the next 24 hours. Clear skies overnight through Monday afternoon. Broken high cloudiness will move in after 00Z, with a wind shift to the northwest at KVTN. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...Roberg