419
FXUS63 KLBF 150524
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1224 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions
   of western and north central Nebraska this evening into
   tonight, with damaging winds as the main hazard. Large hail
   and locally heavy rainfall may also accompany the strongest
   storms.

-  The active weather pattern persists into next week, with
   daily chances of thunderstorms. Strong to severe
   thunderstorms are possible again Sunday evening and
   overnight.

-  Temperatures warm into the weekend before a cold front
   brings cooler temperatures for the middle of next week,
   though confidence remains low at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

For tonight, expect increasing instability early this evening
across much of western and southwest Nebraska, as the surface
warm front remains draped across central and northwest Kansas
into northeast Colorado. Surface dewpoints will range in the
lower 60s and MLCAPE values climbing to 1500-2000 J/kg, with
higher values across far southwest Nebraska and northeast
Colorado. An upper trough will extend across southeast Wyoming
south across Colorado and New Mexico. A lead impulse is shown
lifting northeast from eastern Colorado into western Nebraska
and western Kansas early this evening, which will be the main
focus for storms to develop upon. Lapse rates do steepen aloft
somewhat with the approach of the upper trough. PWAT values look
to increase to near 1.40 inches early this evening ahead of the
storms.

This will lead to widespread thunderstorm development across eastern
Colorado late this afternoon. Deep layer shear near 25kts supports
multicellular storms. Brief supercells could evolve at times, though
this should only last a few hours before evolving into loosely
organized clusters across southwest Nebraska by mid evening. This
should lead to the formation of a cold pool and an increasing threat
for damaging winds, especially for areas south of HWY 2. This is
supported by recent runs of the HRRR. Guidance hints at least a
local threat for significant damaging winds (75+ mph), and
convective trends will need to be monitored closely this evening.
Heavy rainfall will also be a threat where the convective complex
tracks, and localized flash flooding is possible across southwest
into portions of central Nebraska.

On Saturday, the upper trough axis will progress into eastern
Nebraska in the afternoon, with the warm front lifting into southern
South dakota and the mid Missouri Valley. This will bring a warmup
to the low 90s western Sandhills and southwest and mid to upper 80s
east. A chance of lingering showers or isolated storms east in the
morning. A slight chance for showers and storms developing in the
panhandle in the late afternoon and moving east over the eastern
panhandle and western Sandhills Saturday evening. A cold front will
move into the northwest Sandhills overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Active weather will return on Sunday. The cold front will stall out
and become stationary by late afternoon. The location of the front
remains uncertain, although some models locate the front near I80.
This boundary will have to be monitored very closely, as dewpoints
in the upper 60s to potentially the low 70s pool near the frontal
boundary. Strong instability with SBCAPEs 2500-3500 and concerning
shear profiles exist near this warm front. Any storms would quickly
become supercellular should they initiate near the boundary. This
could initiate late afternoon. A weak shortwave in southwest flow
aloft will lift northeastward. A low confidence, but potentially
high impact scenario exists as early as late afternoon into the
evening hours, and this will be monitored very closely. A
Marginal Risk is forecast near and north of Highways 2 and 91,
however this may get adjusted further south and could also be
upgraded to a Slight Risk. More widespread thunderstorm
development is expected overnight north of the surface warm
front across northern Nebraska, in the easterly upslope flow
regime.

The southwest flow aloft will persist across the region all next
week, with near daily threats for thunderstorms persisting across
western and north central Nebraska. Frontal passages and stalled
frontal boundaries will exist. The threat for additional severe
weather chances remains uncertain, though at least some threat looks
to persist given the background synoptic regime. Highs Monday are
likely to contrast from near 70 northwest to the low to mid 90s
southwest. A cooldown in the 70s expected Wednesday, gradually
warming to 80 to 90 by next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Early portion of the TAF period will be dealing with lingering
showers/thunder through around daybreak with MVFR conditions,
followed by a slow improving trend back to VFR. After some early
gusts, winds will generally be 10kt or less through daybreak,
then become a bit gusty 20 to 25kt late Saturday morning into
the afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...MBS