Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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238 FXUS63 KLBF 040551 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1251 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - After scattered rain showers and general thunderstorms later today through early Tuesday morning, dry weather is expected through late Thursday. - Temperatures will waver slightly day-to-day with overall values favoring near to slightly above normal values. At this time, concerns for any high heat days remains quite low. - More active weather arrives this weekend with recurring chances for rain and thunderstorms. The threat for severe weather remains somewhat uncertain at this time. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Early afternoon satellite analysis depicts mostly clear skies for much of central and west central Nebraska. Light southerly winds were noted across the area with a modest convergent area invof the Highway 61 corridor. This will translate west as a dry line sharpens across the eastern Panhandle later this afternoon into the evening. Temperatures as of 20z (3pm CDT) ranged from the upper 70s to middle 80s east to west. For this late afternoon and evening...the aforementioned dry line will be the area to watch for scattered rain and thunderstorm development that will carryover into the early morning hours on Tuesday. Forcing will remain weak but enough low-level convergence and height falls aloft should allow for some general showers and thunderstorms to form to the west and gradually shift east into the forecast area by early evening. Forecast soundings show most of the saturated layer developing in the mid-levels due in part to fgen and WAA originating in the h85 to h7 layer. Below this, some dry air will linger which may inhibit how much liquid reaches the surface initially at least. While plan view NWP guidance shows high MUCAPE values, much of this is rooted from the surface with significant CIN and/or capping to overcome so thought is anything over the next 12 to 15 hours in the local area will be elevated and not realizing these higher instability values. Lows tonight, under increasing cloud cover and with scattered showers and thunderstorms, will likely only fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s west to east. These values are generally 5 to 15 degF above normal for early June. Tuesday...precipitation should quickly depart to the east as the main low pressure system occludes to the north and the trailing frontal boundary continues to track east. Behind a secondary frontal boundary expected to pass late morning through midday, expecting to see modest CAA. Because of this, temperatures are likely to vary notably from north to south with areas along the South Dakota border likely only reaching the middle 70s but climb to the middle 80s south of Interstate 80. Northerly winds will be breezy at times with gusts of up to 30 mph possible before decreasing by late afternoon. Lows Tuesday night will fall into the 50s with some sheltered areas potentially making a run at the upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Wednesday and Thursday...Broadening upper-level ridging will expand into the central and southern Plains through the day Wednesday beneath troughing situated across southern Canada. This ridging will have greater impacts on local weather as the northern stream jet is shunted north. Temperatures will climb as a result of prolonged southerly flow beneath the anomalous heights aloft where NAEFS guidance suggests h5 and above heights/temperatures exceeding the 90th percentile and nearing model climatological maximum values Wednesday into Thursday. That said, surface features such as a trailing cool front from the Canadian system will introduce a slight cooldown for Thursday. So following a day with highs in the middle to upper 80s Wednesday, temperatures drop into the 70s to low 80s in the post frontal airmass Thursday as modest surface high approaches. Friday and beyond...ridge axis will quick approach the Great Basin by Friday with northwesterly flow across the Plains. As surface high pressure settles east, broad southerly flow will reestablish itself across much of the region. This will promote increasing warm air and moisture advection through the weekend as dew points climb into the 50s to low 60s. With expected daytime highs generally in the 70s and 80s, we should see recurring chances for rain and thunderstorms in the area though day-to-day predictability will likely waver somewhat until smaller scale features get better resolved with later forecasts. For now, believe the best window or day to see rain and thunderstorms will be Friday night into Saturday. For now, overall pattern suggests a non-zero severe weather threat each of these days but details are far from certain at this time. Surface high pressure will skirt the area by late weekend which will likely reintroduce some cooler temperatures with highs on Friday in the mid to upper 80s, falling to the 70s and low 80s for each day Saturday through Monday. The next notable mid-level disturbance will track out of the northern Rockies and onto the Plains sometime early next week which will likely yield more widespread rain and thunderstorm chances. Even at this range, ensemble solutions depict fairly high probabilities of seeing > 0.1" of rain at > 40-50% being advertised by both EPS and GEFS ensemble suites. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 VFR should continue through the forecast period for western and north central Nebraska terminals, although a couple aviation weather concerns exist. The first is regarding scattered shower and thunderstorm activity through the overnight hours, tapering by sunrise. A cool front passage will then result in strengthening northwest winds this morning with gusts 20+ kts, and eventually tapering by sunset. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NMJ LONG TERM...NMJ AVIATION...Snively