783
FXUS63 KLBF 201153
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
653 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*Advancing cold front Friday night into Saturday

*Chance of scattered thunderstorms Saturday

*Cooler temperatures Saturday and Sunday into early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

The main concern in the short term will be temperatures and
precipitation chances. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 60s to
mid 70s. Coldest temperatures will be across the northwest Sandhills
where the front will move across the earliest. Warmer temperatures
will be across southern Nebraska where the front will pass through
later in the day.


As for thunderstorm chances, trends have continued to decrease PoPs
with the latest forecast model runs, and less confidence in seeing
any widespread rainfall, however there still remains a chance of
scattered thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances may start as early as
late morning, depending on the timing of the front. As for severe
weather chances, the chance for a severe storm is low. The
environment will only be marginally favorable, CAPE values around
1000 J/kg or less and drier air with the advancing cold front will
also hinder the development of storms. If any shower or thunderstorm
does develop tomorrow, qpf values are quite low so don`t expect a
wetting rain, generally less than 0.05.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

On Sunday, overnight lingering rain showers will continue
into Sunday afternoon. Temperatures are expected to remain cool
Sunday with cloud cover and rain showers keeping highs only in the
mid to upper 50s across most of the forecast area. The cooler
temperatures will be brief as the pattern shifts, an upper
level ridge begins to build in from the west by early next week,
progressing eastward and centered over the High Plains region
by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Only passing high level clouds are expected with bases expected
to remain at or above 20kft AGL. Gusty winds will be the main
concern with peak speeds out of the south around 20 to 25 knots,
stronger at VTN. A frontal boundary late in the period will
bring a wind shift to the northwest at VTN. This boundary will
likely affect LBF but timing appears to be beyond this valid
forecast period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...NMJ