765
FXUS63 KLBF 221738
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1238 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower chances linger for areas south of I80 today.

- Potential for patchy frost late tonight/early Monday morning
  across portions of southwestern Nebraska and the Sandhills.

- Slight chance for rain showers western Sandhills Monday night.

- Dry conditions expected Tuesday through Saturday with near
  normal to above normal temperatures.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

At 3 am CDT, a cold front was analyzed across south central
Kansas through northwest Kansas. A closed upper low was located
over Colorado. Scattered light rain showers were ongoing across
northeast Colorado into far southwest Nebraska. Temperatures
ranged from 41 at Gordon to 57 at Ogallala.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

A positively tilted upper low centered over Colorado early this
morning will become stretched across south central Nebraska this
afternoon. This will support showers chances today mainly across
Chase, Hayes and Frontier County, with a slight chance as far
north as I80. Skies will remain mostly cloudy across the south
today, with skies becoming mostly sunny across north central
Nebraska. Raised highs today to the upper 60s north central to
the low to mid 60s southwest.

Tonight, skies will become clear. A ridge of surface high
pressure will extend from Wisconsin and Iowa back through
central and eastern Nebraska and western Kansas. A light and
variable wind across central and southwest Nebraska with a light
southwest wind to develop across the northwest Sandhills.
Favorable radiational cooling will drop widespread lows in the
upper 30s to near 40. Colder temperatures as low as 35-36
degrees expected across portions of the southeast panhandle,
into west central and southwest Nebraska. Went with the colder
NBM 25th percentile for lows. Even so, the probability for lows
below 36 degrees remain below 50 percent. Have continued the
mention for patchy frost, but the need for a Frost Advisory
remains unlikely.

Monday, will see a nice warmup ahead of an upper trough moving
into the Dakotas. This will bring a weak cold front into the
northwest Sandhills late afternoon. Highs to reach into the
upper 70s near and west of a Valentine through Ogallala line to
near 72 across the far southeastern zones. Sunny skies, except
for afternoon clouds increasing across the northwest Sandhills.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The upper trough will drop southeast across Nebraska Monday
night. This continues to support a slight chance for showers
across the west. may lead to a small threat for precipitation
in western portions of the forecast area. Sprinkles are possible
further east across the remainder of the forecast area.

Tuesday through Saturday, a dry forecast is likely as a cutoff
low develops and persists over the mid and lower Mississippi
Valley and an upper ridge builds into the Central and Northern
Plains. Temperatures may remain near normal in the low to mid
70s across the southeastern zones, to above normal in the upper
70s/lower 80s across the west and northwest. This is due to the
influence of the cutoff low forecast to persist across the mid
and lower Mississippi Valley. Lows will generally be in the
upper 40s to lower 50s which is slightly above normal for this
time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Skies will gradually clear this evening at the KLBF and KVTN
terminals. In the meantime, expect broken ceilings around 15000
FT AGL at the KLBF terminal and 20000 FT AGL at the KVTN
terminal through mid evening. Winds will be light and variable
at under 10 KTS this afternoon into Monday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler