Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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788 FXUS63 KLBF 312107 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 407 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall through this weekend. - A trend towards drier and warmer conditions becomes established by the beginning of next week. - Potential return to active weather by the latter portion of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 403 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 The weak frontal boundary that brought showers/thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall to portions of central and western Nebraska this morning into early this afternoon is still lingering along the Hwy 281 corridor. This boundary will be a focus for new convective development into this evening with potential for locally heavy rainfall, though the bulk of this activity is expected to remain just off to out east. Additional robust convection over northeast Colorado and move into Kansas and glancing far southwest Nebraska. Otherwise, the majority of the region looks to be dry this evening into tonight before isentropic lift and some short wave energy generate some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms along a warm front that will push up from the southwest and into the sandhills by early Saturday morning. Once diurnal heating becomes established on Saturday, the airmass will become moderately unstable with CAPE values around 2500J/kg for much of the region in a well sheared environment with 0-6km bulk shear values at or above 40kt by late Saturday afternoon and precipitable water values approaching the 90th percentile. Anticipate some robust thunderstorms will initiate along lingering outflow boundaries from earlier convection and also along a dry line to our west across the panhandle with potential to move eastward/southeastward toward central Nebraska. Location of boundaries will be a primary driver to exactly where storms develop but anticipate along and south of Hwy 2 will be an area to keep an eye on for severe wind/hail. With the dry line not making a lot of eastward progress the greatest threats for an isolated tornado looks to be more from Hwy 61 westward. Storms will diminish though elevated convection will linger into Saturday night. Highs Saturday will generally be in the 70s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, then generally in the 50s Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 403 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Progressive flow regime with a series of shallow trofs moving through the northern tier of states will keep active weather across central and western Nebraska into the first part of next week before a large ridge starts to build over the western US. Passage of weak fronts may bring additional rounds of severe thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday before opportunities for convection wane heading into the middle of next week as the western ridge builds. Will have to watch for potential of thunderstorm development late next week in northwest flow aloft depending on exactly where the upper ridge becomes established. Temperatures through next week look to be running above normal with highs generally around 80 near the SD border and in the upper 80s south of I-80. Lows will generally be in the 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1255 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR conditions are expected for most of the 24 hour period, however lingering showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across BBW and ANW terminals could impact visiblity briefly. There could also be brief MVFR or lower conditions if an isolated thunderstorm moves over a terminal site this evening, however any widespread thunderstorm activity is low, so have left the mention out of the tafs for now. Winds become light this evening out of the southeast around 5 kts through the remainder of the period. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...Gomez