835
FXUS63 KLBF 030900
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Scattered thunderstorms are possible (25-40%) this afternoon
   and again tomorrow morning ahead of an approaching cold
   front. The threat for severe weather is low.

-  Dry conditions and near to above average temperatures are
   expected Wednesday and Thursday.

-  A more active weather regime returns to the area for Friday and
   beyond, with northwesterly flow developing and increasing
   the threat for convection entering the area off the high
   terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Currently, the line of destructive thunderstorms from earlier this
evening has exited the area and has weakened considerably, with
remnant showers and thunderstorms over far eastern NE and
western IA. Broad zonal flow aloft prevails across the central
Plains, with continued southwesterly warm advection at H85.
Temperatures range from the upper 50s to low 60s across the
area, with weak and variable winds.

For today, expect a return to broad southerly flow in the wake of
this evening`s MCS as broad lee cyclogenesis begins across eastern
WY. Aloft, flow begins to transition west-southwesterly, as an upper
low begins to eject eastward across the Intermountain West into this
evening. By late this afternoon, a dryline will slowly progress
eastward to near HWY 61, with dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s
across the area ahead of the boundary. With lapse rates aloft
somewhat meager(6.5-7 C/km), MLCAPE will climb to only as high
as 1000- 1500J/kg. Flow aloft looks weaker today as well, with
H5 flow only ~15-20kts. Forecast sounding support limited deep
layer shear, with limited length in hodographs across the area
this afternoon. This should limit any severe weather threat
today, with just scattered general thunderstorms anticipated to
the east of the dryline.

By tonight, the aforementioned upper low will begin to eject
eastward across the Dakotas, with an associated surface low
ejecting northeastward across South Dakota. This will drag a
cold front through the area Tuesday morning, with a continued
threat for scattered thunderstorms through early Tuesday
afternoon before the front clears the area. As with Monday, not
anticipating much in the way of severe weather, with meager
instability and deep layer wind shear again anticipated. Behind
the frontal boundary, increasing northwest winds are expected,
as cold advection strengthens and a ribbon of stronger H7-H85
flow (30-35kts) moves into the area behind the low. This should
translate to a period of 30-35mph wind gusts following the cold
frontal passage late Tuesday morning. The colder air filtering
in behind the front will also lead to highs in the 70s to low
80s, some 5-10F cooler than this afternoon. Lows fall into the
low 50s Tuesday night, with a gradual return of warm advection
by sunrise Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Upper ridging begins to amplify across the southwestern US into
midweek, with heights rising locally behind Tuesday`s departing
upper trough axis. This will lead to dry conditions for Wednesday
and Thursday, along with highs returning to the 80s to near 90
across the area Wednesday. As we head into late week, the upper
ridge center will begin to migrate southward towards the Mexico/US
border, with an upper low migrating eastward into the eastern Great
Lakes. This places the area on the northern periphery of the upper
ridge axis, in broad and persistent northwesterly flow aloft. As low
level flow returns to southerly on Friday, richer boundary layer
moisture will stream back northward into the High Plains. This will
lead to a return of instability, and with it a renewed threat
for high terrain convection moving into western Nebraska. At
least some threat for strong to severe storms look to exist for
Friday and into the weekend and early next week, though
mesoscale details will largely drive the degree of any threat.
For this reason, confidence remains low with respect to any
severe weather threat, though this will be monitored closely for
late week and this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR should continue through the forecast period for western and
north central Nebraska terminals. Cirrus from thunder activity
will continue to clear out of the area overnight as near surface
winds remain light and variable. Winds transition from
southwest to southeast throughout the day and strengthen during
the afternoon with gusts near 20 kts for northern terminals
(VTN).

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Snively