Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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951 FXUS63 KLBF 060512 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1212 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions will persist through Thursday. - Precipitation chances will increase beginning Thursday night and continue through the weekend. The threat for severe storms appears highest Friday afternoon/evening across far southwestern Nebraska. - Below normal temperatures are forecast for Saturday through Monday with highs generally in the 70s. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 H5 analysis this morning had a closed low over east central Saskatchewan. A trough extended to the southeast into northern Minnesota, then south into northern Arkansas. High pressure was anchored over the Mojave Desert. Broad westerly flow extended from the Pacific NW into the central and northern Plains. Across the eastern CONUS, ridging extended from the Mid Atlantic States north into central Quebec. At the surface, strong low pressure was located over central Manitoba this afternoon. A cold front extended to the east then south across Lake Michigan, south into eastern Arkansas. A secondary, back door cold front had pushed into most of western and north central Nebraska by 2 PM CT this afternoon. Currently this feature was generally along Interstate 80 from Ogallala to North Platte. Winds immediately behind the front were northerly while winds south of the front were westerly or southwesterly. Temperatures as of 2 PM CT ranged from 72 degrees at Gordon, to 88 degrees at Ogallala and Imperial. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The next 24 to 30 hours will be relatively tranquil across the forecast area. The back door cold front will be forced south into southern Kansas overnight as high pressure noses into the forecast area from the northwest. Northerly winds behind the front will gradually diminish overnight and with a dry airmass behind the front lows will bottom out in the upper 40s to around 50 for most of the forecast area. Some middle 50s are expected over far southwestern Nebraska, where winds will be slower to diminish. The surface high will build into western Nebraska, then central Kansas on Thursday. By afternoon, warmer air on the western periphery of the high, will begin to push into western and southwestern Nebraska. This will lead to highs in the lower 80s. Further east, highs will be in the middle to upper 70s. By late afternoon/early evening, southerly winds will begin to increase across western Nebraska on the back side of the exiting high. Overnight, a nice H85 low level jet will form from in western Kansas/eastern Colorado. This feature will nose into northwestern Nebraska after 06z Friday. At the same time, there are indications in the latest NAM12 soln, of increased mid level warm air advection and instability (negative LI`s computed above the H800 level) over the western Sandhills and northwestern portions of the forecast area. The latest NAM12, 3KM NAM and GFS solns do develop some limited QPF in these areas after 06z Friday, a result of elevated convection. With that in mind, went ahead and expanded the slight chance pops in the inherited forecast. Will cap pops around 20 percent since there is limited support for this with the 12z HRRR and ARW and NSSL WRF runs. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Warmer air will continue to push into southwestern Nebraska Friday. On the leading edge of this warm air surge, a warm front will become established across portions of central into north central Nebraska. This boundary is most pronounced in the NAM 12 soln and shows up to a lesser degree in the GFS soln. SB CAPE`s reach around 3000J/KG across southwestern into central Nebraska Friday afternoon per the latest NAM12 and GFS solns. The presence of plenty of CAPE, a limited afternoon CAP and a frontal boundary, will probably lead to the development of thunderstorms late Friday afternoon/evening. As for the severe threat, there is plenty of deep layer shear to support supercell storms. Given the degree of very steep mid level lapse rates, large hail would be the favored severe hazard. However, INVOF the warm front, there could be a tornado threat, given the low level helicities forecasted in the NAM12 soln. ATTM, the latest SWODY3 has a marginal risk in far SW Nebraska. Feel there is a high probability for this risk to expand northeast into the forecast area with the SWODY2, to be issued tonight. On the heels of storms Friday night, another cold front will back into the region. This will lead to cooler temps Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 70s. The bulk of any storms/precipitation chances should remain out west along the front ranges of Colorado/Wyoming. There is a small possibility that some of this waning convection may reach western and southwestern portions of the forecast area, given the west northwesterly steering winds. Temperatures will then trend higher, as ridging across the western CONUS begins to break down and migrate east. By the middle and end of next week, widespread 90s look probable based on the latest NBM guidance. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR conditions will prevail across western and north central Nebraska overnight through Thursday evening. Winds are expected to remain northwesterly at 10KT or less overnight into Thursday morning. After 17Z, northwest winds will be strongest across north central Nebraska along and east of a line roughly from KVTN to KBBW, near 31014G22KT. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Roberg