Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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263 FXUS63 KLBF 221759 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1259 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next thunderstorm chance arrives Sunday afternoon/evening across swrn/ncntl Nebraska. Storm coverage is expected to remain mostly isolated and the potential for severe weather is low at this time. - Potential for Heat advisory conditions across parts of wrn and ncntl Nebraska Monday. - Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 434 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast this morning; the result of a short wave trof moving east through wrn Nebraska. Very high values of KDP, or Specific differential Phase, are noted on radar with the isolated storms underway and this will support locally heavy rain. The precip loading could support strong or perhaps isolated severe wind gusts. KLBF gusted to 79 mph around 3 am with the passage of an isolated severe storm. This storm activity could be clear of ncntl/ Custer county by 6 am. The forecast allows for additional storm development through late morning. The reason for this is the short wave is still moving through wrn Nebraska. Given the isolated rain chance this morning, the Flood Watch will be allowed to expire at 12z this morning. The chance of upscale growth with any storm development appears low. The next thunderstorm chance arrives Sunday afternoon/evening across swrn/ncntl Nebraska. The focus is a dryline bulge nosing into swrn Nebraska from nern Colo/nwrn KS. The forecast is leaning on the NAM for isolated to low end scattered storm coverage. Both the RAP and NAM indicate around 4000 J/KG of MLCAPE and bulk shear is around 40kts. The shear may be generous given h500-300mb winds are just 25- 35kts and the 850-700mb moisture transport is also modest. Still the strong theta-e advection shown in the NAM and RAP support the potential for an isolated severe storms. Pre-storm PWAT is 1-1.25 inches in the RAP but 1.50 inches in the NAM. It is worth noting, temperatures Sunday temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s with sfc dew points north of 60F. A 700mb upper level disturbance will be moving through the Colo Rockies which is very distant relative to the expected storm development on the Plains. Thus, it appears dryline will be the focus and support for storm development which makes this forecast somewhat speculative. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 434 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Attention is drawn to the potential for Heat advisory conditions across ncntl Nebraska Monday. The models show heat moving through WY and into wrn Nebraska and a weak warm front across ncntl Nebraska. Moisture will pool along this boundary and if the temperature forecast of highs in the 90s with dew points in the upper 60s is correct, heat indexes near 100F should occur. A weak cold front will drift into wrn/ncntl Nebraska Monday night and become stationary across wrn Nebraska Tuesday through Thursday. The GFS is suggesting the clash of the air masses, ever-present June moisture and reasonably strong winds aloft- 25-45 kts at h500-300mb will support thunderstorm chances Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures aloft at h700mb will be warm, around 15C and this suggests storm development might be more favored in the evening or overnight. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 VFR conditions expected to persist at TAF sites through this valid period. Earlier low CIGs have scattered out and expect scattered clouds with a rising trend through this afternoon. Mid clouds increase tonight but any hints for low clouds and/or fog are confined to locations further to the southeast. Any isolated showers or thunderstorms Sunday will hold off until after this valid period. Winds will be northwesterly/northerly and a bit gusty under 20kt early this afternoon, followed by light and variable conditions through tonight. Winds then become southerly Sunday with some low end gusts 15 to 20kt developing by late Sunday morning. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...MBS