925
FXUS63 KLBF 152345
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
645 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Thunderstorms moving out of the panhandle and into the
   western sandhills this evening and early tonight may produce
   isolated wind damage.

-  Active weather pattern continues with daily chances for
   thunderstorms into the first part of next week. Some storms
   may produce isolated wind damage, large hail, and locally
   heavy rainfall, especially up along the Hwy 20 corridor Sunday
   and Monday.

-  Very warm conditions persist south of Highway 2 for the next
   couple of days, but cooler temperatures will slowly push
   down from the north through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Strong afternoon heating into the lower 90s will increase
instability across the panhandle. Isolated showers or storms in
the western panhandle will move into the far western Sandhills
early this evening. A few storms could produce strong winds
gusts. These showers or storms will gradually dissipate as they
move east of Highway 61 this evening.

A cold front will move into the northwest Sandhills late tonight.
Lows will fall to 55 to 60 across the northwest, to 60 to 65
across the south and east.

Active weather will return as early as late Sunday afternoon and
continue through Sunday night. The cold front will stall out
and become stationary by late afternoon, most likely near the
I80 corridor. This boundary will need to be monitored very
closely, as dewpoints in the mid to upper upper 60s pool near
the frontal boundary. Strong instability with SBCAPEs near 3500
J/kg and strong deep later shear near 35 to 45 kts will exist
near this warm front. SB CIN may fall to less than 50 J/kg. Any
storms would quickly become supercellular should they initiate
near the boundary. This could initiate late afternoon across
southwest Nebraska. A weak shortwave in southwest flow aloft
will lift northeastward. A low confidence, but potentially high
impact scenario exists as early as late afternoon into the
evening hours, and this will be monitored very closely. A
Marginal Risk is forecast for all of western and north central
Nebraska,with a Slight Risk near and north of Highway 20.
Upscale growth will promote more widespread thunderstorm
development overnight north of the surface warm front across
north central Nebraska, in the easterly upslope flow regime.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

On Monday, the front will lift north as a warm front into north
central Nebraska. A Marginal Risk is forecast across north
central into central Nebraska with a Slight Risk into a small
portion of north central Nebraska. Strong deep layer shear from
40 to 50 kts and MUCAPEs lowest 1KM from 3500 to 4500 J/kg. Late
afternoon through the evening hours will be the period of
greatest concern.

A cold front is forecast to move through on Tuesday, with a good
chance for showers and storms Tuesday night.

Much cooler temperatures expected behind the front on Wednesday
with highs only in the upper 60s to near 70. Chances or showers
and a few thunderstorms with mainly cloudy skies.

The southwest flow aloft will persist Thursday, become quasi
zonal Friday into Saturday. Daily threats for showers and
thunderstorms persisting across western and north central
Nebraska. The threat for additional severe weather chances
remains uncertain, though at least some threat looks to persist
given the background synoptic regime.

Highs Monday are likely to contrast from the low 70s far
northwest to the to mid and upper 90s southwest. Highs warming
to the 80s to near 90 Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024


VFR conditions will continue through Sunday with the only concern
being some stronger winds across southwest Nebraska by the late
afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm potential exists Sunday evening,
but initiation should remain after 00Z Monday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Kulik