172
FXUS63 KLBF 250533
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1233 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures expected through the weekend. Some
readings may reach the lower 90s Thursday in northern and
northwestern Nebraska. Near record highs possible for Valentine.

- No threat for precipitation over the next 7 days.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions Thursday
afternoon in northwestern and portions of north central Nebraska.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A fairly active H5 pattern was noted across North America this
morning. A closed low was located over western portions of the
Hudson Bay of Canada. A trough extended south of this feature
into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Downstream of this
feature, a strong shortwave was noted over the lower Ohio
Valley. West of the trough, high pressure was anchored over
eastern Oregon, with a low noted approximately 200-300 miles off
the coast of central California. Further east, low amplitude
ridging extended up the east coast from northeastern Florida, to
the Delmarva Peninsula. Further south TS Helene was present,
south of the western tip of Cuba. At the surface, a frontal
boundary extended from southwestern Kansas into southeastern
Nebraska, then north into Minnesota. West of this feature, high
pressure was located over the high plains from central Montana,
into northern Colorado. Skies were partly cloudy this afternoon
under partly cloudy skies and temperatures as of 2 PM CDT,
ranged from 72 degrees at Gordon to 79 degrees at Imperial.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

For the short term, temperatures and fire weather concerns are
the main forecast challenges. Over the next 24 hours, low
pressure at the base of the Hudson Bay trough (mentioned above),
will cutoff over southern Missouri, then drift south into the
Bootheel of Missouri and northeastern Arkansas. High pressure
aloft will track southeast from Oregon into New Mexico,
establishing a ridge north into south central Canada. Very warm
air in association with this ridge will extend form the central
Rockies north northeast into northeastern Wyoming and
southeastern Montana on Wednesday. Further east the core of this
warm air will remain well west of the forecast area. The latest
statistical guidance has trended warmer with its 12z run this
morning, indicating increased highs Wednesday, particularly
across the northwestern forecast area and is now hinting at some
upper 80s in these areas. There is some decent disagreement
with the MAV and MET guidance this morning as the MAV is running
~4F warmer for highs wednesday compared to the MET numbers.
Highs Wednesday will generally be in the lower to middle 80s. On
Thursday, the ridge axis aloft will become more SW to NE
oriented, extending from New Mexico, northeast into Minnesota.
This will induce a surface trough over northwestern Nebraska.
The very warm air over the central Rockies will migrate east on
Thursday with a nice low level thermal ridge extending from the
front range of Colorado into northwestern Nebraska. Guidance
continues to trend warmer for highs and wouldn`t be surprised if
we see lower 90s over the northwestern forecast area. The
latest MAV statistical guidance has 95 for a high at VTN
Thursday which would tie the record high for Sept. 26th. There
is some support for very warm temps in the latest EFI and SOT
forecast from last night, which places the northeastern
panhandle and northwest Sandhills in a threat for abnormally
high temps Thursday. With the afternoon heating, we will be well
mixed leading to some gusty winds, particularly in the eastern
2/3rds of the forecast area where a good pressure gradient
exists. Further west, where the warmest temps reside, this area
may be INVOF an inverted surface trough, which will lead to
lighter winds. The reason I bring this up, is the northwest,
will flirt with critical RH Thursday afternoon. With light winds
co-located with the lowest RH ~ 15 to 20 percent, we should
avoid critical fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon.
Further east, we could see some 20 to 25 MPH wind gusts in the
Valentine area, however low level moisture, should be sufficient
enough to forgo fire headlines ATTM for Thursday afternoon in
the Valentine area. Will need to look at this again Wednesday.
If temps trend higher, we may need some fire headlines over
northern into northwestern Nebraska Thursday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Looking at the probabilistic ensembles, there is a near zero
chance of measurable precipitation across the area through
Tuesday. Temperatures will remain very warm through the weekend
with highs in the 80s, some 5 to 10 degrees above normal for
late September. A northern stream trough will usher in a cold
front Sunday night into Monday bringing temps more in
climatology with highs in the 70s expected Monday and Tuesday.
On the back side of the front and exiting trough, the mid range
solutions are hinting a ridge building into the western CONUS
toward the middle of next week. As for the threat for frost, the
NBM ensembles are indicating a near zero threat for sub 36
degree lows over the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours with clear
skies. Winds will be light and variable across much of the
forecast area, with the exception of the northern Sandhills,
including KVTN terminal. Across the northern Sandhills winds
will be light out of the west, less than 5 kts, overnight into
th morning hours. Winds will then switch to the southeast in the
afternoon near 10 kts across the northern Sandhills.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Gomez