916
FXUS63 KLBF 270511
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1211 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fire weather concerns will be the main forecast challenge the
  next several days. Sunday into Monday look to be the most
  concerning with a strong frontal passage expected.

- Above normal temperatures will prevail through the weekend.
  Then a shot of cooler air behind a cold front on Tuesday.

- Mainly dry weather will continue for the foreseeable future.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Upper level ridging will remain in place from the desert southwest
northeastward though the central great plains through the weekend.
Continued dry and above normal temperatures are expected beneath the
ridging. The ridging dampens a bit Friday as a weak shortwave tracks
across the Dakotas. A weak area of low pressure across South Dakota
will develop across South Dakota today ahead of a the wave. As the
low tracks eastward late tonight and Friday, a cold front will track
southeastward across the area switching winds to the north-
northeast. Temperatures behind the front will only be slightly
cooler Friday as CAA behind the front is very weak. Humidity will be
a touch higher than today behind the front as well. It appears that
elevated fire weather concerns will continue Friday, but with the
slightly higher humidity and timing of the stronger wind gusts during
the morning hours, near-critical/critical fire weather conditions
are not expected. As mentioned, the stronger winds are expected to
be during the morning hours. Appears gusts should average in the 20-
25 mph range, with 90th percentile gusts generally remaining below
30 mph. A sample of area Bufkit soundings also support gusts
generally in the 20-25 mph range. By afternoon, surface high
pressure begins to nose in from the northwest and winds should be on
the decrease.

Surface high pressure ridge axis shifts eastward across the area
during the day Saturday. A return southerly low-level flow develops,
especially by afternoon west of Hwy 83. With afternoon high
temperatures approaching 90F along and west of Hwy 83 humidity will
once again be very low. For now, winds look to remain in check and
prevent and near-critical/critical fire weather conditions. This will
have to be monitored though. If the ridge axis moves off the to the
east more quickly than forecast winds could be stronger.

Sunday looks to be more of a concern in regards to fire weather. A
strong shortwave will be moving into the northern Rockies. A leeward
trough will deepen across eastern Wyoming into Colorado with a
tightening surface pressure gradient developing across Nebraska.
Southerly low-level flow will increase with decent a decent
probability of wind gusts exceeding 25 mph, especially west of Hwy
83. Ensembles are in good agreement that afternoon humidity will
drop to near 15% so Red Flag conditions  are certainly a possibility.
A strong frontal passage is also expected early Monday shifting
winds to the northwest. Gusts over 35 mph look common Monday behind
the front. This may be a case where a Red Flag is issued Sunday and
carried into Monday due to the strong frontal passage and continued
low humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Ridging aloft flattens somewhat Tuesday with the flow becoming more
zonal to southwest by midweek. This occurs as ensembles show broad
troughing across the western CONUS. Conditions still look to remain
dry though Wednesday and fire weather concerns will continue.
Wednesday could be another enhanced day as stronger south winds
develop ahead of the troughing expected to develop across the
western CONUS.

A brief cool down is expected Tuesday behind Monday`s strong cold
frontal passage. A quick return to warmer temperatures is expected
Wednesday as low-level WAA increases on southerly low-level
flow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tonight across
western and north central Nebraska. High clouds exit the area
early this morning, with clear skies expected through the
remainder of the valid period. A frontal boundary will lead to
winds becoming northerly this morning, shifting easterly into
late afternoon, at around 5 to 15kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Brown