826
FXUS64 KLCH 190455
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1155 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Updated the near term POP/wx grids based on radar trends...88D
imagery shows that ongoing mainly light rain continues pushing
slowly wwd although not diminishing as previously thought. Any
pockets of real convection have been confined to the coastal
waters for several hours and this should remain the case, although
did retain isolated thunder mention for land areas just in case.
Elsewhere, no real changes to inherited grids/zones.

As far as going watches/warnings/advisories go in relation to PTC
#1 in the swrn Gulf of Mexico, nothing was changed this evening as
no significant changes were made by NHC with their 03z update.

Updates already sent.
25

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 419 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Deep slug of tropical moisture is moving over the region with
scattered heavier showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. Expect
this trend to continue into Wednesday as PTC1 churns in the west-
southwest Gulf. Primary updates to this short term forecast
revolved around the increase in wind speeds in coastal areas as
the gradient from PTC1 is expected to continue tightening. This
has resulted in a possible increase in tide / surge levels in
south Jefferson county to up to 4.0 feet in the coming days. This
increase in winds may also require a coastal Wind Advisory from
early Wednesday into the afternoon.

Convection producing heavy downpours may still spread over coastal
Texas counties, thus the Flash Flood Watch will continue until
Thursday morning. Otherwise, slightly drier air and high pressure
will move into north Louisiana/Mississippi late Wednesday into
Thursday helping to limit rain chances inland. Those along the
coastline should see a return to somewhat normal diurnal
convective patterns on Thursday.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 419 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

To start the period, the deeper tropical moisture will have moved
off to the west and an upper level ridge will begin to build in from
the east. Therefore, it looks like pretty typical summer weather
with hot and humid days with muggy night. Diurnal type scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly in the afternoon
with daytime heating and the seabreeze. These conditions will extend
into the weekend.

Late in the weekend, guidance shows another low pressure system
coming out of the Central American Gyre and developing over the
southern Gulf of Mexico. At this point, the upper level ridge looks
to hold across Gulf South states, and therefore should keep any
system down in the southern Gulf along with this time keeping any
tropical moisture closer to the system and not affecting the
forecast area. Therefore, typical summer weather into early next
week.

07/Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

BKN to OVC MVFR ceilings to persist through the dawn hours with
VCSH across SETX and potential of some VCTS. Elsewhere across
SWLA, sites will mainly see VCSH through the early morning hours
with shower activity decreasing intensity toward eastern sites LFT
and ARA. Winds at the surface inland will see gusts increase with
mainly easterly components. Aloft winds quickly increase 25-35kts
is lowest 3kft ABG. Intermittent VCSH across much of SWLA to
continue through the afternoon with periodic lifting of ceilings
to VFR as sfc gusts continue to remain robust through the
midafternoon.

30


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 419 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Potential Tropical Cyclone Number 1 in the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico will gradually move west-northwest toward the eastern
Mexico coast through Thursday. Deep moisture will be associated
with this system that will bring widespread shower and isolated
thunderstorm activity. A strengthening gradient between the
disturbance and high pressure to the northeast will generate
moderate to strong east to southeast winds through mid week, while
the prolonged fetch will allow for a significant increase in wave
heights and swells, as well as an increased risk for coastal
flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  90  72  92 /  40  30   0  10
LCH  75  90  75  90 /  60  70  30  60
LFT  75  91  77  91 /  30  50  10  50
BPT  76  90  77  91 /  80  80  40  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ073-074.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ241-
     252>254.

TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ615.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ616.

     Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for TXZ201-515-516-615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436-450-452-455.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30