Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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015 FXUS64 KLCH 130818 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 318 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Very quiet weather ongoing across the region this morning. Some patchy dense fog is presently being observed in the vicinity of Houston, but this hasn`t really developed further east in any appreciable capacity. Can`t rule out the possibility of some light ground fog through the remainder of the early morning especially across the few areas that saw rain yesterday, but this shouldn`t amount to much and should be quick to dissipate after sunrise. Otherwise, high pressure extending across most of the Northern gulf coast and ridging aloft beginning to nudge into the area will keep precip at bay and skies generally clear. Daytime mixing should again pull some low 60s dewpoints down to the surface which will drop afternoon RH values into the 35-45% range making the lower 90s high temperatures feel a bit more bearable. The ridge aloft will continue to build across the area both Friday and Saturday maintaining dry conditions. The combination of increasing subsidence and dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s will drive afternoon highs into the mid 90s Friday afternoon and upper 90s Saturday afternoon. However, the slightly below normal dewpoints especially in the afternoon should keep apparent temperatures below advisory criteria. Jones && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Isolated to numerous PoPs are on tap for the entire forecast period. As a result, temperatures for the period will be held to or below climatological normals. MaxTs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with both MinTs and dewpoints in the 70s. The long term kicks off this weekend with a ridge of high pressure aloft, centered over the Southeastern States. Over the forecast period it will slowly move up the east coast. Yesterday morning NHC highlighted an area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche for possible development over the long term period. As of 2AM EDT NHC has increased this area to a 40% chance of development. Regardless of development, the moisture from this system will bring with it a chance for locally heavy rainfall and a threat of flooding. Model guidance has improved slightly as to the evolution of the system, with the broad area of low pressure expected to move west northwestward into the southern Gulf of Mexico before moving inland around the Tamaulipas / Veracruz area mid to late next week. There is still some disagreement as to how far north the rich plume of tropical moisture will move. While some models have backed down, we will still be facing a multiday flooding threat over the early to mid week period. PWATs along the coast on Sunday are in the 1.8 to 2 inch range which is in the 75th to 90th percentile range. Monday and Tuesday, they are in the 2 to 2.3 inch range. Wednesday and Thursday, they are in the 2 to 2.4 range. Of course this will all depend on where the plume of tropical moisture sets up and this is highly likely to change over the coming days. As of now, there is a Marginal Risk (lvl 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall on day 4 and 5 (Sunday & Monday). Sunday the risk area is along coastal SETX / SWLA. Monday it encompass nearly three quarters of the CWA. Keep in mind that the potential for greater and or additional flood threats will exist over this period. Stigger/87 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 A few isolated showers are lingering near BPT as well as clouds at about 5000 to 5500 ft along the Texas and Louisiana coastlines. These showers should end in the next hours and shouldn`t be of any consequence to BPT. A boundary spanning from southeast Texas to the Gulf right off of Louisiana is the culprit behind these low clouds. The lower ceilings may hang around through early morning and BPT/ARA may experience some light ground fog due to rainfall from today. Forecaster confidence in fog development is very low and thus was not included in area TAFs. A brief period of MVFR ceilings is anticipated around and after sunrise, but as daytime heating and mixing take place, these clouds should lift and clear by afternoon. Otherwise, expect light, variable winds through the morning and a northeast wind during daytime hours. Winds along the coastline will turn to the south later in the day with the seabreeze boundary. Winds diminish with sundown once again. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Light offshore flow will prevail through Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of a stalled frontal boundary over the coastal waters early this morning with chances diminishing through the day. No appreciable precipitation is expected Friday or Saturday. Precipitation chances increase significantly Sunday night through most of next week as moisture from the Southern Gulf of Mexico advances northward. Increasing onshore winds and seas can be expected during this period, with Small Craft Advisories possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 91 64 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 92 70 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 93 71 96 76 / 0 0 10 0 BPT 93 73 96 74 / 10 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...66