635
FXUS64 KLCH 252332
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
632 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Another hot and mostly dry afternoon is ongoing across the
forecast area, as upper level ridging centered over New Mexico
has successfully kept most convection at bay today. Area radar
does show a couple of isolated showers over lower Acadiana at this
time, with more activity further east over SE LA, while the
remainder of the CWA is once again mostly sunny and dry.
Temperatures range from the low to mid 90s, while heat index
values range from around 102 to 109. Similarly to yesterday,
wouldn`t be surprised to see a few more isolated showers pop up
over the next couple of hours, especially across Acadiana, before
all convection dies with sunset.

Upper ridging will gradually retreat westward through the day
tomorrow as a more robust trough becomes carved out across the
eastern CONUS. With less capping overhead provided by the ridge,
better rain chances are expected through tomorrow afternoon
especially through peak heating hours. This convection will be
driven by the seabreeze and diurnal heating, as is typical of our
summer time shower activity, and will die with sunset.
Temperatures look to again warm into the low to mid 90s tomorrow
afternoon however, the addition of showers and thunderstorms
should keep heat index values below advisory criteria.

The ridge continues to break down as we head into Thursday, with
troughing becoming the dominate feature overhead briefly. This
will bring a rather significant uptick in showers and
thunderstorms for Thursday, with NBM painting 50-70 POPS across
central and south central LA and 25-40 POPS further west. Coverage
of showers and thunderstorms will again peak through the
afternoon hours on Thursday, tapering down with sunset.

17

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

The long term is expected to be dominated by a flat ridge aloft
centered just to our north while sfc high pressure remains centered
over the ern Gulf, maintaining a moist srly low-level flow.
Initially, the ridge is progged to be rather weak, and when combined
with good lingering moisture (forecast soundings indicating mean RH
values to 70 percent and PWAT values upwards of 2.1 inches), daytime
heating and mesoscale boundaries, we continue to look at at least
widely scattered showers/storms for Friday, especially over the sern
zones where the best moisture is progged.

By Saturday, the ridge looks to strengthen a bit which should allow
for sufficient capping to prevent much convective development over
the nrn/wrn zones. The sern 1/4 of the area again has the best rain
chances as capping will be least while moisture looks best/deepest.

The ridge looks to build nwd, with best capping transitioning to the
srn Plains for Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak wave looks to traverse the
nrn/cntl Gulf which could lead to a little more convective coverage
to end the weekend, with highest POPs yet again over the sern zones.

The long term ends Monday and Tuesday with widely scattered
convection developing in our moist/unstable summer airmass again
mainly near the coast as the ridge axis lingers to our north.

The nearby ridge will allow for toasty conditions through the long
term, with highs by the end of the period pushing triple digits
inland. Combined with forecast dewpoints in the 70s, apparent temps
will likely exceed the 108F heat advisory criteria over portions of
the area Sunday through Wednesday.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)

SHRA/TSRA near LFT/ARA eastward, will keep VCTS through 01z.
Remainder of terminals not expecting any SHRA/TSRA this evening or
overnight. South winds 8-10 kts expected to diminish to 4-6 kts
or less after 01z, and become more south southwest around 8-10
knots after 15z Wednesday. Slightly higher chances of SHRA/TSRA
over the I-10 corridor Wednesday afternoon, with VCTS at
BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA, and VCSH at AEX, by 18z.

08/DML

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Weak high pressure at the surface will ridge across the northern
Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. This will allow for
mainly light onshore flow for the remainder of the week, to go
along with mainly low seas. Tomorrow through the weekend,
scattered to occasionally widespread showers and thunderstorms
are expected each day. Coverage looks to be best across the
coastal waters through the morning hours. Elevated winds/seas will
be possible in and nearby thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  96  74  94 /   0  20  30  60
LCH  78  92  78  93 /   0  40  20  50
LFT  78  93  78  93 /   0  50  20  70
BPT  78  93  77  94 /   0  40  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-
     055-143-152>154-243-252>254.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...08