Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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156 FXUS64 KLCH 150433 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1133 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 The remnants of Francine continues to swirl around northern MS and AL this afternoon with a weak boundary draped southwest into Central and SE LA. The weak convergence caused by the boundary is producing a few showers from Vernon Parish through the Atchafalaya Basin. Aloft, the area is roughly between a ridge over TX and an East Coast trough, however the ridge is the bigger influence in the area locally. Through the remainder of the afternoon a few showers and storms will be possible, but more so from the lakes area through Acadiana with the diffuse boundary in the vicinity. This boundary is expected to drift south through tonight and into Sunday. Additional isolated showers and storms will be possible toward the coast early Sunday before the weak boundary gradually stalls along the shore in the afternoon. Isolated sea breeze convection may also occur Sunday afternoon. Ever so slightly lower dewpoints will also filter back into the southern zones for Sunday into Monday. Isolated to scattered diurnal convection will be possible in LA Monday. The upper ridge is anticipated to shift slightly west while the remnants of Francine move closer and weaken farther in response to a forming area of low pressure near the Carolina coast. The tropical remnants will gradually fill through Monday night and into the extended. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Friday) Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 On Tuesday the forecast area will be situated between ridging aloft just to the west and troughing to the east, with a NWrly flow aloft between these two features. At the surface, a weak stationary boundary is expected to be situated along the coast, with low pressure near the MS/AL coast. Troughing/low pressure to our east will result in scattered showers and storms across much of the Gulf Coast on Tuesday. Across the forecast area, the eastern most parts of the CWA will likely see some isolated to scattered shower activity on Tuesday, while further west dry conditions are expected. For the remainder of the long term, we transition to a dry pattern as upper ridging shift east and becomes situated across the Ark-La- Tex region while weak surface high pressure meanders across the Gulf Coast. No precip and minimal cloud cover are on tap through much of next week, with little day to day changes expected. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to low 90s each day, while overnight lows will fall into the mid 60s to low 70s. 17 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 A frontal pattern stalling as it moves offshore through the remainder of the nocturnal hours has been the focal region for diminishing VCTS / RA moving S to SSE. Behind the front slightly cooler temperatures and dewpoints will generally keep conditions VFR into the twilight hours. That said, with some fresh moisture on the surface, patchy FG or ground BR is possible between the twilight hours through sunrise. Thereafter, brief patches of BR / FG will quickly lift with diurnal ceilings remaining SCT to BKN through the mid- afternoon- mainly above 5kft. Guidance suggest moisture convergence may allow for convection during mid morning through mid afternoon across eastern sites along Acadiana. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 67 86 68 85 / 0 10 10 30 LCH 73 87 72 88 / 30 20 0 10 LFT 72 88 72 88 / 30 10 0 30 BPT 74 90 73 91 / 30 20 0 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...30