053
FXUS64 KLCH 182120
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
420 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 419 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Deep slug of tropical moisture is moving over the region with
scattered heavier showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. Expect
this trend to continue into Wednesday as PTC1 churns in the west-
southwest Gulf. Primary updates to this short term forecast
revolved around the increase in wind speeds in coastal areas as
the gradient from PTC1 is expected to continue tightening. This
has resulted in a possible increase in tide / surge levels in
south Jefferson county to up to 4.0 feet in the coming days. This
increase in winds may also require a coastal Wind Advisory from
early Wednesday into the afternoon.

Convection producing heavy downpours may still spread over coastal
Texas counties, thus the Flash Flood Watch will continue until
Thursday morning. Otherwise, slightly drier air and high pressure
will move into north Louisiana/Mississippi late Wednesday into
Thursday helping to limit rain chances inland. Those along the
coastline should see a return to somewhat normal diurnal
convective patterns on Thursday.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 419 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

To start the period, the deeper tropical moisture will have moved
off to the west and an upper level ridge will begin to build in from
the east. Therefore, it looks like pretty typical summer weather
with hot and humid days with muggy night. Diurnal type scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly in the afternoon
with daytime heating and the seabreeze. These conditions will extend
into the weekend.

Late in the weekend, guidance shows another low pressure system
coming out of the Central American Gyre and developing over the
southern Gulf of Mexico. At this point, the upper level ridge looks
to hold across Gulf South states, and therefore should keep any
system down in the southern Gulf along with this time keeping any
tropical moisture closer to the system and not affecting the
forecast area. Therefore, typical summer weather into early next
week.

07/Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Tropical airmass and rainshield is moving over the area with most
terminals seeing MVFR ceilings and light rain showers. Expect the
trend of light to moderate showers, low ceilings, gusty east winds
and vicinity thunder to continue for coastal terminals into the
late overnight hours.

The only exception being Alexandria where primarily diurnal showers
and VCTS last through this afternoon.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 will continue moving into east Mexico
/southeast Texas through tonight which will pull convection to the
south tomorrow. Vicinity showers should remain offshore through
18Z with a northward progression after 18Z. Breezy easterly winds
will prevail.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 419 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Potential Tropical Cyclone Number 1 in the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico will gradually move west-northwest toward the eastern
Mexico coast through Thursday. Deep moisture will be associated
with this system that will bring widespread shower and isolated
thunderstorm activity. A strengthening gradient between the
disturbance and high pressure to the northeast will generate
moderate to strong east to southeast winds through mid week, while
the prolonged fetch will allow for a significant increase in wave
heights and swells, as well as an increased risk for coastal
flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  90  72  92 /  40  30   0  10
LCH  75  90  75  90 /  60  70  30  60
LFT  75  91  77  91 /  30  50  10  50
BPT  76  90  77  91 /  80  80  40  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ073-074.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ241-
     252>254.

TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ615.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ616.

     Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for TXZ201-515-516-615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436-450-452-455.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...11