743
FXUS64 KLCH 230427
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1127 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Majority of the shower activity that developed today has dissipated.
Mainly stable conditions expected through the night. With light
winds and mainly clear skies, some patchy fog will be possible,
especially any rural and open field areas that received any
rainfall today. Current forecast seems to have this handled and no
changes will be made at this time.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Ridging aloft has weakened overnight and will continue to weaken
at the start of the work week. Meanwhile, the surface high has
shifted to the east. This change in our synoptic pattern will
allow high temperatures to lessen and increase our rain chances
for Monday and Tuesday. PoPs will still be on the lower side,
around 20%.

Monday and Tuesday will see our moisture levels increase as our
winds become onshore. This increase in moisture will help keep
PoPs elevated, especially near the coast. Unfortunately, the
additional moisture will keep our apparent temperatures near 100
degrees, so relief from the heat will have to wait until
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Two main features will define the long-term forecast for our area.
The first feature is a developing tropical system in the
Caribbean, which the NHC has given an 80% chance of developing in
the next seven days. Recent model runs have been more aggressive
with this system, and the NHC has upped the chance for development
to 40% in the next 48 hours. Recent model runs have also kept
this feature on the eastern side of the Gulf, but there is still
uncertainty with the exact track of this system. Monitoring this
forecast will be a top priority for the next several days.

The second feature will be a weak cold front that will move across
the region Wednesday night and Thursday. Thursday looks like the
best day for rain, with widespread PoPs around 50%. The front will
continue to move south, pushing well into the Gulf by next
weekend. Behind the front will be a continental dry airmass that
will drop our temperatures and dew points into much more enjoyable
levels. North winds will help keep our high temperatures in the
mid- to upper 80s with lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

A couple of small showers remain over lower Vermilion Parish.
However, these should not affect any terminals and dissipate
shortly.

For the remainder of the overnight, mainly light winds and clear
skies are expected and therefore some patchy fog will be possible,
especially in locations that receive any rain earlier in the day.
Thus, will have tempo groups from 23/09z to 23/13z for MVFR type
visibility.

On Monday, still looks like high pressure in control with mainly
VFR conditions and winds less than 10 knots.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

High pressure will gradually shift east while low pressure moves
across the plains today into early week. Onshore winds will
increase through Tuesday along with an increase in showers. Wave
will remain below 3 feet through mid week.

NHC is still monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the
Caribbean. Currently the hurricane center is giving the area a
80% chance of development with 40% over the next 48 hours. This
disturbance is anticipated to lift north through the eastern gulf
late in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  91  70  90 /   0   0  10  30
LCH  73  90  74  90 /   0   0   0  30
LFT  74  92  74  91 /   0   0   0  20
BPT  75  92  75  91 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...07