Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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085 FXUS64 KLCH 162304 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 604 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Little change is expected day to day for much of the short term forecast. A weak boundary draped in a west-to-east fashion along I-10 is in place today and will remain in place Tuesday before washing out on Wednesday. Along this boundary, expect isolated to widely scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms. Best chances for convection will take place across Lower Acadiana (30 to 35 % PoPs) where there is pooling of low level moisture. Northwest flow will develop overhead Wednesday, helping to wash out this boundary and bring most rain chances to an end. Forecast soundings also indicate the more efficient mixing down of dry air to the surface, helping to further limit any surface convection. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s to around 90/91F this afternoon, which is a degree or two higher than expected. Thus, with an expectation of similar conditions tomorrow, daytime high temperatures were blended with the 12z GFS to bump them up slightly from the NBM. Highs will trend upwards slightly on Wednesday with the arrival of northwest flow and slightly drier air. Daytime temps should top out in the low 90s, but with lower moisture, it should at least be a dry heat. There are no concerns of hitting Heat Advisory criteria this week. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Sunday) Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The long range portion of the forecast essential gets dominated by a mid/upper-level ridge building over the region from TX/Old Mexico, gradually settling directly overhead. Meanwhile, sfc ridging initially centered over the lower MS Valley will gradually shift ewd, but remain the dominant weather maker (or non-maker, in this case) at the sfc. The result will be dry and warm conditions with highs generally in the lower 90s (a cat or two above normal for late September) and lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s (near normal). Highs do cool a degree or two by the end of the forecast period as the ridge begins breaking down, with additional cloud cover helping temper temps a bit). && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 548 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Generally, VFR skies with breezy north winds are prevailing across terminals this afternoon. Save for ARA where southerly winds and VCTS are ongoing due to a boundary near the airport. Convection will come to a close with sundown and winds will diminish as well, becoming variable after 01z. There is a decent signal for some patchy ground fog to develop area-wide between 09z and 14z, so most terminals (LCH, LFT, ARA and AEX) are carrying 4 to 5 SM in this time. BPT was left out since the area has been so dry in recent weeks. Considering the dry air which has worked into central and south Louisiana today, there is no expectation of dense fog at AEX Tuesday morning. Any VIS issues will resolve after sunrise. Expect similar conditions to today: VFR CIGs, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in Acadiana with some vicinity to LCH; hot and dry elsewhere. Winds will be variable around a boundary sitting just inland; north to north-northeast north of I-10, south from I-10 to the coastline. 11/Calhoun && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 68 87 69 90 / 10 30 0 10 LCH 73 91 73 90 / 10 30 0 10 LFT 73 87 74 89 / 20 40 0 20 BPT 73 90 75 90 / 10 20 0 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...11