Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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438 FXUS64 KLCH 151134 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 634 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 356 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Pleasant conditions this morning albeit a bit humid. We could see patchy fog this morning in several areas around the CWA in a few hours. Whatever fog forms will burn off shortly after sunrise. Aloft we still have the ridge directly over head with a broad area of high pressure over the region. Over the course of the period, we will see those features move off to the east as an inverted trough moves west. While the ridges influence will limit PoPs, it is not out of the realm of possibility to see very isolated activity over the day today. Tonight and into Sunday morning will see a shift into a more active period with multiday scattered to numerous PoPs and flooding potential. With the departing ridge / incoming trough, we will see significantly more moisture work its way into the area. In comparison to days previous, the models are getting into better alignment in regards to what we can expect over the short term. The rich moisture plume will work its way into the area Sunday, with PWATs quickly increasing to over 2 inches (Sun night) across the eastern and southern parts of the CWA. That will be just the start of it. More moisture will work its way into the area as the trough begins to form into a closed off area of low pressure. There is a Slight (lvl 2 of 4) to Marginal Risk (lvl 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall from Sunday into the long term period. Keep in mind that the potential for upgraded and or greater coverage in flood threats will exist over this period. Stigger/87 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 356 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Tropical moisture will peak at the beginning of the period across the region as easterly wave works across the central Gulf of Mexico. Guidance is less bullish on closing off a circulation with this feature this morning. If it does close off in the SW Gulf, the northern stream of deep moisture would become less than currently forecast. As of now PW`s are forecast to get above 2.5 with rain chances peaking on Tuesday with heavy rainfall possible across the area, especially the southern half of the area. Wednesday will continue to see a deep stream of tropical moisture translating west more into Texas and by Thursday PW`s will drop back to below 2 inches, however still plenty of moisture for scatter showers and thunderstorms, with normal summertime diurnal trends across the coastal water at night and moving inland during the day. Friday will see the lowest rain chances through the period, however another deep plume of tropical moisture will be on the way for Saturday. In addition to heavy rainfall, coastal flooding will be a concern if Tuesday and Wednesday if current tide model trends continue a breezy easterly and southeasterly winds translate across the coastal waters along with longer wave period swells developing in those wind conditions. JB && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Some patchy fog has formed around the area however no impacts to the TAF sites. An upper ridge over the area will suppress showers and storms. With light southeasterly flow, we will see some mid level decks. Otherwise a quiet period. && .MARINE... Issued at 356 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Light offshore flow will prevail through Today. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will return by late tonight as gulf moisture slowly moves northward. Precipitation chances increase significantly Sunday through most of next week as additional moisture from the Southern Gulf of Mexico advances northward. East to southeast winds expected to increase near or above 20 knots, along with increasing seas, beginning Monday, and remain near this level for the remainder of the period. This prolonged east to southeasterly fetch will likely cause increasing tides, with minor coastal flooding possible. Small Craft Advisories will likely be necessary during this time period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 95 72 94 72 / 0 0 30 20 LCH 94 75 93 75 / 10 0 60 50 LFT 97 75 93 76 / 10 0 80 50 BPT 95 75 94 76 / 0 0 40 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....27 AVIATION...87