Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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168 FXUS64 KLCH 220827 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 327 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 A ridge aloft is centered along the Texas coast this morning. The ridge stretches from northern Mexico and across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Also, a short wave is pushing into the plains. This disturbance is causing storms in the TX Panhandle and OK. At the surface a ridge is centered over the southeast states while a low is moving northeast across the central plains. An associated front is stretched into North TX. Today the ridge aloft and at the surface will slowly shift east. At the surface, the pressure gradient between the ridge and the plains low will allow for a modest increase in the south flow locally. The ridge overhead will suppress convection again today, however a few nocturnal showers will be possible this morning along the coast followed by an isolated shower or two along the sea breeze in the afternoon. Temperatures will still be above climo norms today. A gradual and modest increase in rain chances will begin Monday and last into the extended as the upper ridge gets eroded from the northwest. Average accumulations are anticipated to be light. High temperatures will also decrease slightly with the increase in cloud cover. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Moving forward to Wednesday, a positively tilted trof extends a cold front SW from the parent low pressure over the Eastern Great Lakes to the TX / LA Gulf Coast. Locally, this pattern translates to increased moisture convergence along SWLA and SETX. That said, forecast QPF remains low as projected instability and low level dynamics do not show signals for significant rainfall at this time. Isolated to scattered shower / storms remain in the forecast leading into Thursday with highs trending toward the lower 80s under a northerly wind regime. Meanwhile, as the sfc front stalls along the coast, the upper level region of enhanced divergence shifts into the northwest Gulf as it interacts with a tropical disturbance that is forecast to lift north over the central Gulf. Until a low-level center of circulation appears within the feature, model analysis will continue to carry a large spread of uncertainty on intensity and movement. The disturbance is currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center and more reliable guidance will be worked into the forecast regarding the feature as confidence of formation increases. However, at this time, the local pattern suggests a deepening low pressure across the central Gulf into the Mississippi Valley through Friday morning. Despite lowered instability, chances of shower / storms remain in the forecast as the feature shifts inland over the SECONUS through Friday night. Do note, as the feature evolves, regardless of development, there will likely be resulting adjustments to the PoPs. For now, guidance from WPC leaves our area with no risk for excessive rainfall through majority of the work week while still hosting milder conditions under northerly breezes leading into the upcoming weekend. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Not much change in the thinking as far as the aviation forecast goes. High pressure at the surface and aloft will prevail during the period. Mainly light winds and clear skies through the night. Some patchy fog will be possible mainly between 22/09z-13z and will have a tempo group with MVFR visibility to cover that. On Sunday, no significant shower activity is expected with mainly south winds at less than 10 knots and VFR conditions. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 High pressure will gradually shift east while low pressure moves across the plains today into early week. This will modestly increase the onshore flow and allow for a slight increase in rain chances. NHC is still monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean. Currently the hurricane center is giving the area a 70# chance of development. This disturbance is anticipated to lift north through the gulf late in the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 91 70 90 70 / 0 0 0 10 LCH 92 73 91 74 / 10 0 10 0 LFT 92 74 92 74 / 10 0 10 0 BPT 92 74 92 74 / 10 0 20 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...07