001
FXUS64 KLCH 221730
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

This forecast will be the tale of two ridges. At the surface,
high pressure will be building off the east coast. As this feature
strengthens, it will cause our winds to shift and come from the
south. The warm, moist marine air will cause our heat index values
to skyrocket and will be teasing the heat advisory criteria of
108. Aloft, the second ridge is centered overhead and will slowly
start to retrograde through the weekend. The subsidence from this
ridge will limit convection, with only isolated showers and storms
in the afternoon each day this weekend. This is a strong ridge
for this time of year, with heights at 500 mb around 594 dm.

High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be in the mid- to
upper 90s. Mostly clear skies will also maximize our diurnal
heating, with isolated pockets of triple digits likely for central
Louisiana. Make sure to stay hydrated and cool this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

To start the period, weak surface high pressure will ridge across
the northern Gulf of Mexico coast providing mainly a light southerly
flow off the Gulf. This pattern at the surface should continue
through the week. Therefore, good low level moisture and high
humidity is expected to be in place.

Rain chances from the moisture will depend on the position of the
upper level ridge across the southern US.

On Tuesday, the upper level ridge should be centered over west Texas
and have enough influence to limit diurnal activity to mainly slight
chance. However, this will allow the heat to be the main issue and
apparent temperature tool has readings in the 108F - 110F range
which would be heat advisory criteria.

During the mid week to the end of week, (Wednesday - Friday,) a
short wave expanding along the east coast looks to cut into the
eastern portion of the upper level ridge, and therefore, expect a
better chance for diurnal daytime heating and sea breeze driven
showers and thunderstorms. The higher pops will come over eastern
portions of the forecast area, east central Louisiana, through south
central Louisiana and along the Atchafalaya basin, where the upper
level ridge will be weaker.

07/Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Aviation-wide we are seeing a ceiling in the 4500 ft range, and
that will continue through the afternoon. I have not added any
patchy fog for Sunday morning yet, that will be re-evaluated
later this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Thanks to the disturbance in the southern Gulf, tides are running
above normal. A coastal flood advisory has been issued for our
coastal areas through tomorrow. High tides will run around 1.5 to
1.7 ft MHHW. Minor coastal flooding is expected during high tides.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  96  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
LCH  75  93  76  93 /   0  10   0  20
LFT  75  95  77  95 /   0  20   0  30
BPT  76  95  77  95 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ073-074-
     252>254.

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ615.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...15