Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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616 FXUS64 KLCH 192051 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 351 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 All indicators (satellite, radar, area observations) point to the same conclusion: it`s dry and hot with only fair-weather cumulus to be seen! Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 90s, but with dewpoints mixing down into the low 70s, apparent temps are topping out from 97 to 101F. Expecting a similar evening to last night: slow cooling trend, but should feel comfortable outdoors, so long as you don`t get caught by the seabreeze boundary. High pressure regime continues into Friday and Saturday with similar weather: hot as temperatures hit the low to mid 90s, but dry with no precipitation anticipated. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 The long range portion of the forecast remains largely unchanged from the past few days with our mostly dry and mainly warm pattern continuing. A mid/upper-level ridge initially extending from Old Mexico through ern TX into the Mid-South is progged to gradually shift ewd across the forecast area in response to a trof digging ewd out of the Rockies. Meanwhile, sfc ridging initially centered over the East Coast will gradually shift ewd, maintaining an onshore low-level flow. The result will be dry and warm conditions continuing into early next week. By the time we get into Tuesday, the trof aloft is progged to have shifted ewd, breaking down the ridge and allowing for the capping to cease enough for the potential for a few showers/storms on Tuesday/Wednesday. Finally, will continue to watch what the models do with likely tropical development over the nwrn Caribbean/sern Gulf for next Thursday...as of now, no concerns on that front for our side of the Gulf Coast as a sfc boundary is likely to slide into the region, which will also bring our small rain chances to an end. Highs for Sunday/Monday look to run in the lower 90s as ridging aloft holds on before a slow drop back into the upper 80s by Tuesday with the onset of better moisture/cloud cover. Post-frontal highs for next Thursday are even "cooler" (mid-80s). 25 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 High pressure centered overtop the Texas/Louisiana state line is in control of the forecast for the period, with only fair-weather cumulus with MVFR ceilings and light, variable winds ongoing. A few gusts may develop this afternoon with daytime mixing, but due to high pressure, gusts will be variable/turbulent in nature. After sundown, the same trend as in previous days can be expected: improving skies after 01Z and patchy fog (4 to 5 SM) at most or all terminals from 09 to 14Z. After 14Z, any lingering fog will dissipate and mild, variable conditions expected once again. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 High pressure situated over the region will continue a trend of hot, dry and clear conditions with 1 to 2 foot seas through the weekend. Early next week, a frontal system developing over the central US will tighten the pressure gradient, bringing about elevated winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 70 93 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 75 92 74 91 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 76 93 74 93 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 76 94 75 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...11