Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
325 FXUS64 KLCH 161137 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 637 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The upper level remnants of Francine will continue to meander over the ArkLaMiss today while a weak, quasistationary frontal boundary continues to ebb and flow along the gulf coast with about 5 degrees of dewpoint differential on either side of it. Similar to the last two days, high res guidance is in good agreement on isolated to widely scattered convection developing in the vicinity of this boundary this afternoon and early evening with activity waning around sunset. By Tuesday, the remnants of Francine will become absorbed by the landfalling Potential Tropical Cyclone 8. This will pull the general weakness aloft a bit further to the east as a strong ridge axis nudges into east Texas. This will keep a lid on precip across Southeast Texas with isolated to scattered afternoon convection possible across south central Louisiana. Any convection that manages to materialize should dissipate again around sunset. The ridge will build further east into the area Wednesday which should keep the whole area dry. Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals through the period. Jones && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The second half of the week into the weekend will be dominated by a synoptic Omega pattern aloft. Ridging across much of the central U.S. will maintain no appreciable precip chances and mostly clear skies allowing afternoon highs to climb into the mid 90s each afternoon. This pattern begins to break down near the end of the forecast period as the ridge is shunted back south into Mexico. Jones && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Patchy, very shallow, ground fog will potentially impact area terminals over the next hour or so before dissipating with VFR conditions to prevail thereafter through the day. Light, variable winds this morning will become predominantly Northwesterly by late morning through the evening before becoming variable again overnight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across parts of south central Louisiana potentially impacting LFT and ARA, but confidence is too low to explicitly mention in tafs attm. Any storms that develop will dissipate around or shortly after sunset this evening. Patchy fog will again be possible early Tuesday morning. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A weak pressure gradient across the gulf this week will keep winds light and seas low. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the near shore waters this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 86 69 85 68 / 20 10 20 0 LCH 88 72 87 73 / 20 10 20 0 LFT 89 73 89 74 / 30 10 30 0 BPT 92 73 91 75 / 20 10 10 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...66