Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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273 FXUS64 KLCH 191610 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1110 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1037 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 PTC 1 was named Tropical Storm Alberto with the latest advisory from NHC. Other than confirming a well-defined and closed center of circulation which allowed the naming of the system, the overall forecast has changed little with respect to impacts to our area. Prolonged strong and gusty easterly winds have allowed significant water pile-up to occur along the Jefferson County and Cameron Parish coasts with tides still between 2.5 and 3.0 feet MHHW at Texas Point and 2.0 and 2.5 feet MHHW at Calcasieu Pass. Several reports of water covering roadways along the coast have been reported, including the closure of Sea Rim State Park due to inundation. Water levels will not recede much today but some recession can be expected toward low tide late this afternoon into this evening. Tides are expected to rise again late tonight into Thursday morning with levels similar to those seen this morning so the Coastal Flood Warning will remain in effect. Meanwhile, for the coastal waters, the Tropical Storm Warning will remain in effect as gusts to TS force can still be expected. Outside of the coastal waters and coastal impacts, some breezy easterly winds can be expected for areas along and south of I-10 today. While no activity is noted over inland areas per KLCH radar currently, conditions remain favorable for some scattered showers or storms through the afternoon, and a few showers or storms could produce very heavy rainfall. However, any flood risk will remain localized, with the best potential in urban or poor drainage area. Made some minor adjustments to hourly PoPs to reflect current trends, but otherwise no changes to inherited forecast. 24 && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Wx map shows the big sprawling gyre of Potential Tropical Cyclone One with the broad center across the Southwest Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is quite large, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 415 miles to the north of the center. This puts the northern edge of this radius near the 20-60 nm marine zones, where a Tropical Storm Warning continues. The large circulation is also continuing the large eastward fetch across the Northern Gulf of Mexico, piling up tides across the Upper Texas and Southwest Louisiana Coast, which is at astronomical high tide now. Highest readings (MHHW or Mean Higher-High Water) at the NOS tidal stations along the coast include: Texas Point, TX (2.74 MHHW) Calcasieu Pass, LA (2.43 MHHW) Freshwater Locks, LA (2.73 MHHW) Eugene Island, LA (2.45 MHHW) Amerada Pass, LA (2.35 MHHW) Coastal Flood Warning continues for Lower Jefferson county and Cameron parish. A Coastal Flood Advisory continues for Lower Vermilion, Lower Iberia, and Lower St. Mary parishes, although these tides, likely maxing out now, are near Coastal Flood Warning criteria, further evidence of the influence of this large circulation. Will continue to monitor these tidal trends this morning and determine if an upgrade is necessary. Further inland up the Sabine and Calcasieu rivers, high tide is offset about 6 to 12 hours later, still on the upward trend. Thus, a Coastal Flood Advisory continues for Southern Calcasieu parish & Southern Orange county. Otherwise, intermittent showers, and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm, will continue today, slowly diminishing this evening and overnight. Storm total precipitation has come way down since yesterday, now only expecting about an inch or two at most across Southeast Texas along and south of I-10, with amounts less than an inch elsewhere. The excessive rainfall outlooks have trended downward as well, now with the Marginal Risk only clipping Jefferson county. For Thursday and Friday, the large mid to upper level ridge of high pressure building over the region expected to be the dominate weather feature. Lingering moisture across the Gulf expected to keep chances of showers and thunderstorms across the coastal waters. For inland areas, scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms can be expected along and south of the I-10 corridor, diminishing chances further inland as the ridge provides additional subsidence. Afternoon temperatures in the lower 90s expected Thursday, and lower to mid 90s Friday. Lows in the mid to upper 70s Thursday, lower to mid 70s Friday. 08/DML && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Broad upper level ridging along with weak high pressure at the surface will dominate the forecast area through the weekend resulting in a rather typical summer time pattern. Both Saturday and Sunday will start off dry, with shower activity expected to increase through the afternoon hours. Typical isolated to scattered coverage can be expected each day, driven by daytime heating and the seabreeze. Temperature wise, highs will top out in the low to mid 90s, while overnight lows will dip into the mid to upper 70s. Moving into the work week, afternoon rain chances increase a bit, particularly for the eastern half of the region, as the upper ridge slides westward slightly. Still expecting most, if not all, of this activity to be driven by daytime heating/the seabreeze, with activity peaking through the afternoon hours and dying off with sunset each day. Temperatures will continue to warm into the mid to upper 90s inland and into the low to mid 90s along and south of I-10 each day, while overnight lows will generally be in the mid to upper 70s. 17 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Intermittent SHRA/MVFR ceilings will continue today across all sites through this evening. East winds around 20 kts with gusts to 30 kts will be common for BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA, and around 15 kts gusts to 25 kts for AEX. Expect improving conditions late in the period. 08/DML && .MARINE... Potential Tropical Cyclone Number 1 in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico will gradually move west toward the Mexican coast through Thursday. Intermittent showers and isolated thunderstorms will bring tropical storm force wind gusts across the 20 to 60 nautical mile coastal waters, where a Tropical Storm Warning continues. The system is expected to move inland across Northeast Mexico later && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 90 73 92 71 / 40 20 10 0 LCH 90 76 90 74 / 40 10 60 20 LFT 90 76 90 74 / 40 0 50 10 BPT 90 78 91 75 / 60 40 60 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ073-074. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ241- 252>254. TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ615. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ616. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ430-432-435- 436-450-452-455. Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ470-472-475. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...08