Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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504 FXUS64 KLCH 160450 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1150 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 The weak remnants associated with Francine continues to drift around LA, AR, MS, AL, and the FL panhandle this afternoon with a weak boundary extending from this broad low into the local area. Diurnal heating, weak convergence from the surface boundary, and a weakness aloft will continue to allow convection to develop into the afternoon. A ridge axis is also centered over TX which will suppress convection farther west keeping most showers and storms over LA. Extra convergence caused by the sea breeze will also concentrate convection along the coastal areas to I-10 through early evening. Monday, the moisture and weak, broad trough will drift southwest due to being driven by a developing Carolina coastal system. This will keep pops in the forecast for another day. Convection will be highest across the Atchafalaya where moisture will be deeper. Showers can not be ruled out in SE TX, but the minimal chance will be highest along the coast. By Tuesday and Wednesday the remnants of Francine are expected to have filled while the ridge from Texas builds in. Decreasing rain chances are expected. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Saturday) Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Upper level ridging will gradually build overhead from the west on Wednesday, remaining over the Ark-La-Tex through the at least Saturday. At the same time, weak surface high pressure is expected to meander around the northern Gulf Coast through the second half of the week. This will bring about a benign and dry pattern that will last through the end of the long term period. Little to no precip, mostly sunny skies, and near or slightly above normal temps can be expected each day. Highs will top out in the upper 80s to mid 90s each day, while lows will fall into the upper 60s to mid 70s each night. 17 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Conditions to trend mainly VFR / MVFR with respect to ceilings through the remainder of the evening. That said, with some recent precipitation and low level inversion setting up as indicated on earlier upper air analysis, the environment should allow for patchy areas of FG or ground BR. Trending from the early twilight hours through sunrise, temporary reductions down to IFR are possible. Guidance has suggested more widespread development across SE Mississippi, then becoming patchy into central portions of Louisiana. Near the coast, signals are not is congruent, however, with calm VRB winds observational and anecdotal conditions suggest some temporary reductions in VIS are not out of the question for sites along / south of I-10. Additionally the other potential limiting factor will be lowered ceilings near daybreak where the nocturnal boundary layer will cap some low- level BKN clouds, again with best signals over south central Louisiana. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 67 86 69 86 / 0 20 10 10 LCH 72 88 72 87 / 10 10 0 10 LFT 72 89 73 88 / 0 30 0 20 BPT 74 92 74 91 / 20 10 0 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...30