393
FXUS64 KLCH 300214
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
914 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Daytime heating type showers and storms have diminished with
sunset and the loss of daytime heating. The remainder of the night
should see stable conditions, although it will be on the muggy
side.

Good confidence in seeing the max heat index readings above 108
degrees for a widespread portions of the forecast area on Sunday.
Therefore, have gone ahead and issued a Heat Advisory.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Aloft, we have two ridges. One is centered over Texas, elongated
across the Gulf Coast States. The other is over the Atlantic Coast,
extending into the Gulf Waters.  Closer to the surface, we have
areas of high pressure meandering about the region. With our setup,
we can expect hot and humid conditions to carry on for the remainder
of this forecast period.

This afternoon, and consecutive afternoons in this period will see
isolated to scattered showers and storms ramp up in the afternoon
hours and taper in the evening with the loss of heating.

Heat indices are in the triple digits right now and are well
within our criteria for a Heat Advisory. We currently have a Heat
Advisory in effect for most of the area that will expire tonight
at 7PM tonight. With similar conditions expected each day,
subsequent Heat Advisories (at a minimum) are likely.

Stigger/87

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Tuesday continues to set the stage of a hot long range outlook with
dewpoints remaining in the upper 70s throughout the forecast period
as high temperatures meander between the mid to upper 90s across
the board. A large surface high pressure becomes situated over New
England which is forecast to merge with the Western Atlantic high
pressure cell throughout the mid week. This pattern will allow the
ridging extending SSW from Cape Cod toward the central Gulf of
Mexico to broaden and shift East over Florida and the Appalachia
Bay. Concurrently, the upper level ridge stretching across Carolinas
 West Arizona also slackens and broadens toward the end of the
upcoming work week signaling that continued POPS, at least on an
Isolated scale remain the forecast with some periodic absences.

Locally, the main concern throughout the midweek will be relatively
hot temperatures which may warrant additional heat related headlines
trending into the long range. While remaining on the southern to
southwestern periphery of the high pressure pattern, a weak frontal
boundary will sink south of the TN Valley and stall over the Lower
Mississippi Valley / Central LA area. Naturally, this boundary will
provide additional focus for showers / thunderstorms to develop with
the Acadiana / Atchafalaya region becoming the most favorable
location for development. Do note, forecast PWATs in the atmospheric
column above trending near 2.00. However, our forecast QPF, remains
low as this signals for precip do not come in the form of an
organized system, but rather isolated to scattered diurnal showers /
storms which tend to cluster together. In some of these areas of
heavier, clustered storms, it is not unlikely to see backyard
rainfall amounts approach those PWAT values. However, it is highly
dependent upon how progressive or not these features remain over the
area. Wednesday, a brief, hardly noticeable, lowering of
temperatures is forecast with some of the drier air mixing /
evaporated remaining low level moisture. Sea breeze initiated
showers and storms cannot be ruled out with the latest guidance
keeping these POPS trending toward coastal locations. Interior SETX
and SWLA continue to have more limited chances, but not zero through
the mid and even late week time. By Friday, an upper level trough
erodes the remaining high pressure locally with a developing
shortwave deepening upstream along the western plains southeastward.
Lastly, there are currently no tropical impacts forecast within the
scope of the long range along SETX and SWLA.

Kowalski/30

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Isolated showers or storms will be possible across the forecast
area through sunset or roughly 30/02Z. At this point, the terminal
that has the best chance of seeing any left over shower activity
is KAEX and will have a VCSH there until sunset. Otherwise, all
terminals are expected to see VFR conditions through the night.

On Sunday, looking like a repeat, mainly VFR conditions, expect
the potential for scattered showers or thunderstorms with max
daytime heating after 30/19z and will mention VCTS to cover this.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Weak high pressure at the surface will ridge across the northern
Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. This will allow for
mainly light onshore flow to go along with mainly low seas.
Through the next several days, scattered to occasionally
widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  97  77  96 /  20  30  20  50
LCH  81  94  80  95 /   0  40  10  60
LFT  81  95  80  97 /  10  50  20  80
BPT  81  96  79  97 /   0  30  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ027>033-044-
     045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ180-201-
     259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...07