282
FXUS64 KLCH 250455
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1155 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A broken line of showers and storms will continue to move into
the northern zones in response to a trof moving south into the
region. A lull in convective activity is expected this evening
with diurnal minimum. Another round of isolated to scattered
activity can be expected to begin late tomorrow morning to
afternoon in response to a cold front dropping south across the NW
Gulf Coast States. Currently, neither severe weather or flooding
is expected as a result. This activity will continue into the late
afternoon hours before tapering out of the area. Postfrontal
conditions will be more pleasant as a slightly cooler and drier
airmass moves into the forecast area. Both Max and Min Ts will be
climatologically near normal for this time period.

11/Calhoun & 87/Stigger

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

At the beginning of the long term period, what remains of what is
now TS Helene and an upper closed low will continue to interact over
the central to eastern CONUS. The models have yet to resolve the
placement of both systems along with the timing of when the remnants
will be absorbed into the cutoff low. That will play a role in
what, if any, precip we see. From yesterday, some of the models
have backed down on wrapping around more moisture this far south.
However, even the wetter solutions do not depict moisture /
rainfall amounts to write home about. As a result, PoPs were
decreased over this period. The postfrontal temperatures seen at
the end of the short term will carry on to and through most of the
long term with only a 2-4 degree warm up expected for MaxTs.
MinTs and dewpoints will see more of a bump right along the coast,
however further inland will be pleasant as northerly to
northwesterly winds prevail.

Stigger/87

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Other than the addition of better fog chances late tonight for
the Acadiana terminals (per recent high res guidance) and more
rain chances with the approach/passage of the next frontal
boundary Wednesday, no significant changes to previous TAF
thinking.

25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A weak pressure gradient at the surface will keep winds light
with a general onshore component today. A few showers or
thunderstorms have developed right over the coast and over the
waters, along with a waterspout sited this morning.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible again
Wednesday as a cold front pushes slowly through the area. Offshore
winds will increase in the wake of the front Wednesday.

TS Helene is expected to become a major hurricane over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico in the next two days. Based on the current
forecast track and intensity, offshore flow in the 20-30 knot
range and increasing seas in the 6 to 10ft range are expected to
develop Thursday as the cyclone approaches the coast of the
Florida panhandle and moves inland.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  84  63  82 /  50  40  10   0
LCH  73  88  67  84 /  20  40  10   0
LFT  74  89  69  85 /  20  40  10   0
BPT  73  90  68  88 /  20  40  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...25