Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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254 FXUS64 KLCH 220833 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 333 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 This forecast will be the tale of two ridges. At the surface, high pressure will be building off the east coast. As this feature strengthens, it will cause our winds to shift and come from the south. The warm, moist marine air will cause our heat index values to skyrocket and will be teasing the heat advisory criteria of 108. Aloft, the second ridge is centered overhead and will slowly start to retrograde through the weekend. The subsidence from this ridge will limit convection, with only isolated showers and storms in the afternoon each day this weekend. This is a strong ridge for this time of year, with heights at 500 mb around 594 dm. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be in the mid- to upper 90s. Mostly clear skies will also maximize our diurnal heating, with isolated pockets of triple digits likely for central Louisiana. Make sure to stay hydrated and cool this weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 To start the period, weak surface high pressure will ridge across the northern Gulf of Mexico coast providing mainly a light southerly flow off the Gulf. This pattern at the surface should continue through the week. Therefore, good low level moisture and high humidity is expected to be in place. Rain chances from the moisture will depend on the position of the upper level ridge across the southern US. On Tuesday, the upper level ridge should be centered over west Texas and have enough influence to limit diurnal activity to mainly slight chance. However, this will allow the heat to be the main issue and apparent temperature tool has readings in the 108F - 110F range which would be heat advisory criteria. During the mid week to the end of week, (Wednesday - Friday,) a short wave expanding along the east coast looks to cut into the eastern portion of the upper level ridge, and therefore, expect a better chance for diurnal daytime heating and sea breeze driven showers and thunderstorms. The higher pops will come over eastern portions of the forecast area, east central Louisiana, through south central Louisiana and along the Atchafalaya basin, where the upper level ridge will be weaker. 07/Rua && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 VFR conditions ongoing and expected to prevail for the duration of the TAF cycle. Due to the precip this afternoon and evening, patchy fog will be possible overnight, however it is not expected to be dense nor significantly impact the TAFs. An upper ridge is building more into the region, which will help in suppressing convection, however isolated showers are certainly not out of the question for the late afternoon to evening hours. Stigger/87 && .MARINE... Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Winds will slowly decrease in strength through the weekend and the pressure gradient decreases. At the same time winds will shift to become onshore by Saturday afternoon. Buoys waves between 2 and four feet. Observations and the most recent scattermeter pass shows 10 to 15 knots from the east with weaker winds farther east. High pressure aloft will limit convection through Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 95 72 97 74 / 0 0 10 0 LCH 93 74 93 76 / 0 0 20 0 LFT 94 75 94 77 / 10 0 20 0 BPT 93 75 94 77 / 0 0 20 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...87