Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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696 FXUS64 KLCH 112331 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 631 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Wx map shows weak surface high over the Eastern U.S. giving our region northeast winds around 5-10 mph. Temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dewpoint gradient across the I-10/U.S. 190 corridors with mid 70s to the south, and mid to upper 60s to the north across Central Louisiana where the drier air resides. Radar showing the scattered showers and thunderstorms along the coastal parishes and counties. Latest short term guidance showed slightly lower chances, and locations closer to the coast to receive this afternoon`s round of precipitation. For tonight, expect most of the activity to diminish by sunset, with no precip expected inland. Offshore, expect showers and thunderstorms to develop by daybreak along the frontal boundary, which is expected to be near the coast, or near coastal waters by then. For the remainder of Wednesday, expect most of the showers and thunderstorms to remain either in the coastal waters, with low chances 20% along the coastal parishes/counties. Low chances of precipitation is expected Wednesday night through Thursday night as the slightly drier air at the surface and aloft prevails. With the dry air in place, overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s north of I-10, upper 60s to near 70 elsewhere. Afternoon high temperatures Thursday expected to increase into the mid 90s. 08/DML && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Monday) High pressure aloft will be centered over southern New Mexico by the end of the week, however the ridge is expected to extend into East TX and LA. High pressure at the surface is anticipated to be centered over the Smokey Mtn NP which will cause a roughly northeast flow locally. While high temperatures will likely be slightly above normal for the date, lows may fall to or just below normal due to a northeast flow dragging in slightly lower dewpoints. The ridge aloft is also expected to keep showers and storms suppressed for Friday. Saturday and Sunday the upper ridge will gradually slide east across the gulf coastal states to the Atlantic. An inverted trough over the eastern gulf is anticipated to slip west around the southern periphery of the ridge aloft then be pulled northwest across the west to northwest gulf coast. This will increase moisture locally through the weekend and into early next week. Scattered to perhaps numerous showers will become possible Sunday afternoon an linger through the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Diurnal showers or storms will be in the vicinity of the KBPT terminal until 12/02z or shortly after sunset. Otherwise, all terminals will see stable conditions after sunset with light winds and mainly mid to high level clouds from convective debris. Therefore, VFR conditions after sunset and through the night. The seabreeze on Wednesday looks like it will be confined close to the coast, and therefore will just place VCTS at the KBPT and KARA terminals after 12/20z as max daytime heating interacts with the seabreeze and other mesoscale boundaries. Rua && .MARINE... Expect a light northerly flow to develop as a weak frontal boundary slips south tonight and Wednesday. The front is forecast to meander over the coastal waters for the next couple of days and dissipate. Expect southerly flow to develop by Friday, and remain for the remainder of the weekend into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 66 89 63 91 / 0 10 0 0 LCH 71 91 70 92 / 30 30 0 10 LFT 72 92 69 92 / 10 30 0 10 BPT 74 92 73 94 / 40 30 0 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...07