504
FXUS64 KLCH 270903
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
403 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

A weak upper disturbance is moving across the area this morning
while surface convergence is occurring along the coast from a
left over outflow boundary as a result of Wednesday`s convection.
More broadly across the Conus, a ridge is centered over the desert
SW/Northern Mexico while an upper trough is over the eastern half
of the country. The weak upper disturbance is rotating around the
sw side of upper trough.

Convection along the coast is being supported by the coastal
convergence and upper weakness and is anticipated to continue
through sunrise and into mid-late morning before weakening.
In the mid lvls a drier airmass is located across interior SE TX,
Cen LA, and northward. This may suppress convection somewhat
today, however hi-res guidance still indicates enough low lvl
moisture is in place to allow isolated to scattered showers and
storms. Storm movement will be toward the coast much like
Wednesday. Convection should quickly die off as sunset approaches
as this drier air moves south across the entire area.

The ridge over the SW states will begin to build back east Friday.
The air mass is also expected to drier aloft. Convection is
expected to be somewhat suppressed across SE TX and interior
locations, however higher chances will be found across Acadiana
where the ridge`s influence will still be lesser and moisture will
be higher.

The ridge will build east across the region this weekend
increasing temperatures once again. Apparent temps may push back
into heat adv criteria. Rain chances will be low both Saturday and
Sunday, however isolated storms in the afternoon may be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The upper ridge will be centered over the mid-Mississippi Valley
by early next week. A weak cold front is expected to drift in from
the northeast causing an increase in convection once again Mon and
Tue. No cooling is expected though.

With the upper ridge in place across the South temperatures will
continue to be above normal in the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A few showers have begun to redevelop near the coast this morning.
High resolution guidance does show some early morning development,
but confidence in the location and coverage of this activity is
too low to explicitly include in TAFs attm. An upper level trof
axis will move across the region increasing activity further by
mid morning. Scattered thunderstorms will continue through the
day into the early evening. Away from storms, generally light
Westerly to West Southwesterly winds will prevail.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

A light onshore flow is expected through the weekend. Showers and
storms, most numerous in the overnight and early morning hours,
are anticipated this morning and again Friday. Lesser amounts of
convection is expected this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  72  94  76 /  30  10  20   0
LCH  91  77  90  79 /  60  20  40   0
LFT  92  77  92  79 /  70  30  70   0
BPT  94  77  93  79 /  60  20  30   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05