190
FXUS64 KLCH 211050
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
550 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

A ridge aloft remains centered over South Texas this morning while
stretching into the northern gulf coast and the lower Mississippi
Valley. At the surface high pressure stretches from the local
region into the southeast states. This set up has been in place
for the past few days and has produced light winds with minimal
convection. Not much change is anticipated today. Temperatures
will run several degrees above climo averages for the date this
afternoon with dry conditions expected.

Into Sunday, both the ridge aloft and at the surface will
gradually shift east. The ridge aloft will continue to suppress
convection while the pressure gradient remains weak keeping winds
light.

Finally by Monday minimal rain chances return to the area. A
short wave will move into the plains eroding the ridge aloft over
TX and LA. Low pressure will also move across the Great Lakes
slightly increasing the south flow locally. The modest increase in
cloud cover and wind will allow high temperatures to decrease a
few degrees, but overall conditions will remain summery.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

A pleasant welcome to the extended forecast will be the very subtle
down trend in diurnal highs throughout the upcoming work week into
the low to mid 80s. Tuesday, high pressure ridging wraps along the
Eastern Seaboard while extending SW across the northern Gulf.
Upstream to the west, a positively tilted shortwave trof will usher
a front across the Southern Plains which will begin to stall across
central Louisiana through Wednesday morning across SETX and SWLA.
The front will increase chances for precip across the area, but only
marginally as isolated showers and storms in the afternoon.

Behind the front, Wednesday evening, lies a large continental mass
of high pressure that will occupy the Plains and Ohio Valley through
the remainder of the forecast period. Meanwhile in the Gulf of
Mexico, low pressure troughing associated with the Central American
Gyre will start to deepen northward. There are favorable signals for
tropical development beyond Wednesday, however, guidance contains a
large spread over potential system that has yet to even form. Once
observable signals of organization are ingested by model guidance
early next week, further changes to the forecast will occur, if
necessary, as confidence increases in the pattern evolution.
However, regardless of tropical development which will be monitored
by the National Hurricane Center, the overall pattern trends the
Gulf area of low pressure abutting modest high pressure ridging
across the Southern Plains / Gulf Coast. Thus, rainfall signals
persist Thursday and Friday as well. Additionally, more mild and
seasonable diurnal high temperatures will take place while surface
winds gain stronger northeasterly components toward the end of the
work week.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Patchy fog will affect the terminals this morning with lower vis
at times. The fog will quickly burn off after sunrise with VFR
conditions anticipated through day and into early Sunday. Patchy
fog may once again develop around sunrise Sunday. Winds will be
light.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

High pressure offshore will continue the trend of hot, dry and
calm conditions. Seas are below 2 feet and will stay there through
the weekend. In addition winds will be light and variable. The
pattern will start to change around midweek as a front moves
offshore, increasing winds.

In the Gulf the NHC has a 60% region for development of a
tropical cyclone. There is little consistency between individual
models or model run-to-run consistency. It will be important to
keep a close eye on the forecast for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  94  74  91  73 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  95  74  92  73 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  94  75  92  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...05