Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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180 FXUS64 KLCH 200703 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 203 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 116 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Hot and dry conditions to continue through the short term. A ridge aloft is over the southern plains and northwest gulf coast this morning while weak high pressure at the surface is stretched over the mid Mississippi Valley and northern gulf. This will produce yet another day with warm temperatures with very little chance for rain. The chance is not zero, but very unlikely at any given point. Winds will be light. During the weekend the ridge aloft will gradually shift east and be roughly overhead Sunday. No real changes in the forecast are anticipated day to day from today through Sunday. The only noticeable change will be the surface ridge moving to the Atlantic coast. This will allow a modest increase in southerly flow. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 116 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 The long range continues dry with above normal diurnal temperature trending in the lower 90s to start off the work week Monday. Slack upper level flow above the Gulf will allow broad ridging to extend to the surface with light southerlies in place. Therefore, dry conditions can be anticipated for the better part of the area. The case remains the same Tuesday with the exception of slightly higher signals for some low level moisture convergence which could squeeze out a few afternoon isolated thunderstorms. Meanwhile, a shortwave trof over the Four Corners regions becomes more positive oriented as the northern portion of the wave elongates into the Ohio Valley through Wednesday morning driving a cold front southward across the plains toward the Gulf Coast. Winds will shift northerly and keep north to northeast components through the remainder of the forecast. A very large area of subsidence builds above the Rocky Mountains in response to the aforementioned trof evolution. By Thursday, the frontal pattern shifts offshore, although there is not significant amount of cold air advection expected. Further to this, the strength of the frontal pattern is far from resolved, so adjustments to this pattern near the tail end of the outlook as it relates to troughing that is forecast to slowly deepen in the southern Gulf and Central America are not out of the realm of possibilities. That said, a slight lowering trend toward more climatological norms in the mid the upper 80s is expected through the mid week. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Light winds and VFR CIGs will prevail through the forecast period. Only deviation from this will be early tomorrow morning prior to sunrise when patchy fog is once again expected to develop area- wide. Most sites should see VIS reductions to MVFR however, periods of lower VIS are possible. Conditions will improve quickly post sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 116 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 High pressure situated over the region will continue a trend of hot, dry and clear conditions with 1 to 2 foot seas through the weekend. Early next week, a frontal system developing over the central US will tighten the pressure gradient, bringing about elevated winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 93 69 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 94 75 92 74 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 94 75 93 74 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 95 76 93 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...17