088
FXUS64 KLCH 202110
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
410 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 404 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

The latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows the remnants of
Alberto continuing to move inland over Mexico. Meanwhile, a broad
ridge over the eastern US continues to build southwest over the
region. Moisture over the region remain sufficient to allow some
convection to develop and move west across portions of southern LA
and SE TX. Despite quite a bit of CU/TCU development around the
area this afternoon, decent insolation has enabled temperatures to
climb to around 90 degrees or into the lower 90s.

Significant coastal flooding continues again today in response to
the strong easterly fetch of winds, with water levels along the
Jefferson County and Cameron Parish coasts as well as inland
waterways running between 2.0 to 2.5 feet MHHW. Water levels are
expected to recede this evening with low tide, but are again
expected to climb to around 2.0 feet with high tide early Friday
morning. The Coastal Flood Warning has been extended through
Friday evening, especially given the prolonged crests expected
further inland.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 404 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Ridging at the surface and aloft will prevail through the short
term period. Mid level high pressure will migrate westward through
the weekend, while high pressure near the surface will allow
easterly winds to veer more southeasterly. PWATs will continue to
trend below the 90th percentile and probably closer to the climo
mean, with primarily diurnal convection expected Friday. By
Saturday, the ridge will be strongest over the region, with warm
and dry air aloft providing enough capping to limit shower
coverage. As the ridge aloft continues westward on Sunday, its
influence over the area will weaken and scattered showers and
storms will again be possible with daytime heating.

Daytime temperatures will begin to warm back above seasonal
levels the next few days. By Saturday, high temps are expected to
reach the middle to possibly upper 90s, especially for areas
north of I-10. At this time, enough drier air aloft should mix
down to keep heat index values below 105 degrees so no Heat
Advisory is expected to be needed.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 404 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

A broad upper level ridge is expected to extend from southern
California into the eastern Gulf of Mexico Sunday through Tuesday
which will keep skies mostly clear and allow afternoon highs to
climb into the mid to upper 90s. In the lower levels, high pressure
extending across the Florida peninsula and Eastern Gulf of Mexico
along with a surface low/weak tropical disturbance over the Bay of
Campeche will maintain steady southerly winds through the same
period which will keep dewpoints in the mid 70s. Guidance is in good
agreement that the ridge aloft isn`t going to be strong enough to
cap daily afternoon diurnal convection which will provide brief
relief from the heat. Higher PoPs will be across Acadiana where
capping from the ridge will be a bit weaker with lower PoPs across
SE Texas. The ridge looks to retrograde back into Texas by late
Tuesday with an upper trof digging south across the eastern half of
the U.S. which will increase PoPs through the second half of next
week while also dropping afternoon highs closer to climatological
normals.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

MVFR cigs are currently noted at the southern TAF locations as the
daytime CU field continues to develop. Cigs have been more
persistent at LCH/BPT than at the Acadiana terminals. Anticipate a
trend toward more SCT VFR conditions during the afternoon, with
bases rising to between 3000 and 6000 FT. Gusty easterly winds to
persist at the southern airports this afternoon, along with the
possibility of scattered SHRA/TSRA so carried VC mention at these
sites. Further north at AEX, winds should be a little lighter with
any showers expected to be more isolated. VFR conditions expected to
prevail after sunset with winds diminishing.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 404 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

The remnants of Alberto continue to move inland over Mexico.
However, a tight pressure gradient remains in place, producing
strong easterly winds over the waters. Winds will gradually
diminish through tonight into Friday, with seas slowly decreasing.
Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect over the nearshore
waters through 1 AM, and over the outer waters through 4 AM,
primarily due to elevated seas. Winds will gradually become more
southeast to south by late in the weekend into early next week,
but should stay light to moderate.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  93  72  95 /   0  10   0   0
LCH  72  91  74  92 /  10  40  10  10
LFT  75  93  74  95 /   0  50   0  10
BPT  75  92  75  94 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ073-074-241.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ252>254.

TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ450-452-455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for GMZ470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...24