782
FXUS64 KLCH 161801
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
101 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The upper level remnants of Francine will continue to meander over
the ArkLaMiss today while a weak, quasistationary frontal boundary
continues to ebb and flow along the gulf coast with about 5
degrees of dewpoint differential on either side of it. Similar to
the last two days, high res guidance is in good agreement on
isolated to widely scattered convection developing in the vicinity
of this boundary this afternoon and early evening with activity
waning around sunset.

By Tuesday, the remnants of Francine will become absorbed by the
landfalling Potential Tropical Cyclone 8. This will pull the
general weakness aloft a bit further to the east as a strong ridge
axis nudges into east Texas. This will keep a lid on precip across
Southeast Texas with isolated to scattered afternoon convection
possible across south central Louisiana. Any convection that
manages to materialize should dissipate again around sunset. The
ridge will build further east into the area Wednesday which should
keep the whole area dry. Temperatures will remain near seasonal
normals through the period.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The second half of the week into the weekend will be dominated by
a synoptic Omega pattern aloft. Ridging across much of the central
U.S. will maintain no appreciable precip chances and mostly clear
skies allowing afternoon highs to climb into the mid 90s each
afternoon. This pattern begins to break down near the end of the
forecast period as the ridge is shunted back south into Mexico.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Very isolated showers and weak thunderstorms are developing within
Lower Acadiana, along a stationary boundary lingering draped
across the I-10 corridor. Across all terminals, winds are fairly
light and variable around this boundary, and ceilings are
generally within upper MVFR to lower VFR bounds. Expect an
increase in convective activity across the forecast area this
afternoon, however convection should still remain fairly isolated
to widely scattered in nature. Only LCH, LFT and ARA carry
vicinity wording as these are the areas with highest chances to
see activity.

Convection should diminish with sundown, along with improving
ceilings and calming winds. This same boundary will linger
overhead again Tuesday, bringing about another round of convection
near Lower Acadiana in the early morning.

Some sites saw scattered instances of fog this morning,
particularly at AEX where nearby burning may have left smoke in
the air. As skies clear overnight, expect more ground fog to
develop. This could be more widespread in nature than this
morning, but dense fog is not expected.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A weak pressure gradient across the gulf this week will keep
winds light and seas low. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be possible across the near shore waters this afternoon and
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  86  69  85  68 /  20  10  20   0
LCH  88  72  87  73 /  20  10  20   0
LFT  89  73  89  74 /  30  10  30   0
BPT  92  73  91  75 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...11