504
FXUS64 KLCH 160450
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1150 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The weak remnants associated with Francine continues to drift
around LA, AR, MS, AL, and the FL panhandle this afternoon with a
weak boundary extending from this broad low into the local area.
Diurnal heating, weak convergence from the surface boundary, and a
weakness aloft will continue to allow convection to develop into
the afternoon. A ridge axis is also centered over TX which will
suppress convection farther west keeping most showers and storms
over LA. Extra convergence caused by the sea breeze will also
concentrate convection along the coastal areas to I-10 through
early evening.

Monday, the moisture and weak, broad trough will drift southwest
due to being driven by a developing Carolina coastal system. This
will keep pops in the forecast for another day. Convection will be
highest across the Atchafalaya where moisture will be deeper.
Showers can not be ruled out in SE TX, but the minimal chance will
be highest along the coast.

By Tuesday and Wednesday the remnants of Francine are expected to
have filled while the ridge from Texas builds in. Decreasing rain
chances are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Upper level ridging will gradually build overhead from the west on
Wednesday, remaining over the Ark-La-Tex through the at least
Saturday. At the same time, weak surface high pressure is expected
to meander around the northern Gulf Coast through the second half of
the week. This will bring about a benign and dry pattern that will
last through the end of the long term period.  Little to no precip,
mostly sunny skies, and near or slightly above normal temps can be
expected each day. Highs will top out in the upper 80s to mid 90s
each day, while lows will fall into the upper 60s to mid 70s each
night.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Conditions to trend mainly VFR / MVFR with respect to ceilings
through the remainder of the evening. That said, with some recent
precipitation and low level inversion setting up as indicated on
earlier upper air analysis, the environment should allow for
patchy areas of FG or ground BR. Trending from the early twilight
hours through sunrise, temporary reductions down to IFR are
possible. Guidance has suggested more widespread development
across SE Mississippi, then becoming patchy into central portions
of Louisiana. Near the coast, signals are not is congruent,
however, with calm VRB winds observational and anecdotal
conditions suggest some temporary reductions in VIS are not out of
the question for sites along / south of I-10. Additionally the
other potential limiting factor will be lowered ceilings near
daybreak where the nocturnal boundary layer will cap some low-
level BKN clouds, again with best signals over south central
Louisiana.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  86  69  86 /   0  20  10  10
LCH  72  88  72  87 /  10  10   0  10
LFT  72  89  73  88 /   0  30   0  20
BPT  74  92  74  91 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...30