412
FXUS64 KLCH 190952
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
452 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)

Wx map shows the big sprawling gyre of Potential Tropical Cyclone
One with the broad center across the Southwest Gulf of Mexico.
The disturbance is quite large, and tropical storm force winds
extend outward up to 415 miles to the north of the center. This puts
the northern edge of this radius near the 20-60 nm marine zones,
where a Tropical Storm Warning continues. The large circulation
is also continuing the large eastward fetch across the Northern
Gulf of Mexico, piling up tides across the Upper Texas and
Southwest Louisiana Coast, which is at astronomical high tide now.
Highest readings (MHHW or Mean Higher-High Water) at the NOS
tidal stations along the coast include:

Texas Point, TX (2.74 MHHW)
Calcasieu Pass, LA (2.43 MHHW)
Freshwater Locks, LA (2.73 MHHW)
Eugene Island, LA (2.45 MHHW)
Amerada Pass, LA (2.35 MHHW)

Coastal Flood Warning continues for Lower Jefferson county and
Cameron parish. A Coastal Flood Advisory continues for Lower
Vermilion, Lower Iberia, and Lower St. Mary parishes, although
these tides, likely maxing out now, are near Coastal Flood
Warning criteria, further evidence of the influence of this large
circulation. Will continue to monitor these tidal trends this
morning and determine if an upgrade is necessary.

Further inland up the Sabine and Calcasieu rivers, high tide is
offset about 6 to 12 hours later, still on the upward trend. Thus,
a Coastal Flood Advisory continues for Southern Calcasieu parish & Southern
Orange county.

Otherwise, intermittent showers, and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm, will continue today, slowly diminishing this evening
and overnight. Storm total precipitation has come way down since
yesterday, now only expecting about an inch or two at most across
Southeast Texas along and south of I-10, with amounts less than an
inch elsewhere. The excessive rainfall outlooks have trended
downward as well, now with the Marginal Risk only clipping
Jefferson county.

For Thursday and Friday, the large mid to upper level ridge of
high pressure building over the region expected to be the
dominate weather feature. Lingering moisture across the Gulf
expected to keep chances of showers and thunderstorms across the
coastal waters. For inland areas, scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms can be expected along and south of the I-10
corridor, diminishing chances further inland as the ridge provides
additional subsidence. Afternoon temperatures in the lower 90s
expected Thursday, and lower to mid 90s Friday. Lows in the mid to
upper 70s Thursday, lower to mid 70s Friday.

08/DML

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)

Broad upper level ridging along with weak high pressure at the
surface will dominate the forecast area through the weekend
resulting in a rather typical summer time pattern. Both Saturday and
Sunday will start off dry, with shower activity expected to increase
through the afternoon hours. Typical isolated to scattered coverage
can be expected each day, driven by daytime heating and the
seabreeze. Temperature wise, highs will top out in the low to mid
90s, while overnight lows will dip into the mid to upper 70s.

Moving into the work week, afternoon rain chances increase a bit,
particularly for the eastern half of the region, as the upper ridge
slides westward slightly. Still expecting most, if not all, of this
activity to be driven by daytime heating/the seabreeze, with
activity peaking through the  afternoon hours and dying off with
sunset each day. Temperatures will continue to warm into the mid to
upper 90s inland and into the low to mid 90s along and south of I-10
each day, while overnight lows will generally be in the mid to upper
70s.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)

Intermittent SHRA/MVFR ceilings will continue today across all
sites through this evening. East winds around 20 kts with gusts to
30 kts will be common for BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA, and around 15 kts gusts
to 25 kts for AEX. Expect improving conditions late in the period.

08/DML

&&

.MARINE...
Potential Tropical Cyclone Number 1 in the Southwestern Gulf of
Mexico will gradually move west toward the Mexican coast through
Thursday. Intermittent showers and isolated thunderstorms will
bring tropical storm force wind gusts across the 20 to 60 nautical
mile coastal waters, where a Tropical Storm Warning continues. The
system is expected to move inland across Northeast Mexico later
tonight, with winds and seas gradually subsiding on Thursday.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  73  92  71 /  20  20  10   0
LCH  90  76  90  74 /  60  20  60  20
LFT  90  76  90  74 /  50   0  50  10
BPT  90  78  91  75 /  70  40  60  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ073-074.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ241-
     252>254.

TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ615.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436-450-452-455.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...08