Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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669 FXUS64 KLCH 140519 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1219 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Wx map shows weak surface high pressure ridge extending from the Eastern U.S. to the Gulf coast giving our region east northeast winds. Weak stationary frontal boundary continues across the coastal waters with light northeast winds there as well. Dewpoints mainly in the 60s continues across most locations with the exception of the coastal regions where lower 70s prevail. Afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the area. Radar showing no echos across our area, with most of the activity across the coastal waters dissipated. No precipitation is expected tonight as the slightly drier air at the surface and aloft continues to prevails. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s north of I-10, near 70 to lower 70s elsewhere. Afternoon high temperatures in the lower 90s. Overnight lows Thursday night expected in the mid to upper 60s north of I-10, 70 to lower 70s further south. By Friday, the mid to upper level ridge over Mexico & Texas expected to begin building eastward, exhibiting more influence and subsidence over our region. As a result, afternoon high temperatures expected to rise into the lower to mid 90s for Friday afternoon with maximum heat index values ranging from the upper 90s to lower 100s. Overnight lows expected to be slightly higher in the upper 60s/near 70 for Central Louisiana, lower to mid 70s further south. For Saturday, the upper ridge expected to be right overhead, exhibiting the maximum subsidence. Afternoon high temperatures expected to rise into the mid to upper 90s with maximum heat index values ranging from 100 to 105. Little if any chances of precipitation expected inland. Across the coastal waters, Gulf moisture and lift expected to slowly advance northward, with chances of showers and thunderstorms increasing late Saturday night. 08/DML && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) An inverted trough will move west across the gulf this weekend into next week with moisture streaming north into Texas and Louisiana. NHC is monitoring the southern gulf for potential tropical development. Moisture from this disturbance is expected to be pulled northwest around an upper ridge that will move northeast from Georgia to the mid Atlantic. While the main impacts are anticipated to be well removed from the local area at this time (mainly into the southern gulf and into Mexico), an increase in rain chances, higher than normal tides, and breezy conditions may occur across SE TX and LA. The current forecast, albeit highly uncertain, is for roughly 2- 4" of rain along the coastal areas during the extended portion of the forecast then roughly 1 to 2" across the northern half of the area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Skies are mostly clear across the area, although some cirrus north of the region could be streaming over the area overnight. While some patchy ground fog cannot be ruled out, the overall risk for any vsby related impacts is low. Winds will be light and variable tonight, then northeasterly 5-8 KT after 15Z Friday, with FEW to SCT CU again developing during the day. 24 && .MARINE... Light offshore flow will prevail through Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will return by Saturday as Gulf moisture slowly moves northward. Precipitation chances increase significantly Sunday through most of next week as additional moisture from the Southern Gulf of Mexico advances northward. East to southeast winds expected to increase near or above 20 knots, along with increasing seas, beginning Monday, and remain near this level for the remainder of the period. This prolonged east to southeasterly fetch will likely cause increasing tides, with minor coastal flooding possible. Small Craft Advisories will be likely necessary during this time period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 69 97 72 95 / 0 0 0 30 LCH 74 95 75 92 / 0 10 10 60 LFT 74 96 75 93 / 0 10 0 60 BPT 74 95 77 92 / 0 10 10 50 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...24