076
FXUS64 KLIX 102045
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
345 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Upper trough extended from Maine to the Lower Ohio River Valley
this afternoon, with upper lows over New Mexico and off the Baja
California coast. At the surface, a frontal boundary was drifting
southward, and may be fairly close to the Interstate 10/12
corridor. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms dotted the
area, with somewhat better areal coverage over the lower portions
of the coastal parishes. Storms have really struggled to
strengthen, with very few even reaching the -20C level, which was
around 26,000 feet this morning. Wind fields below 600 mb were
rather weak, and while we can see outflows apparent on radar,
haven`t seen any ground truth wind reports much above 20 mph. Away
from convection, temperatures were generally in the upper 80s to
mid 90s at mid afternoon. Dew points were in the low to mid 70s
near and south of the frontal boundary, but seeing dew points fall
into the upper 60s across southwest Mississippi.

Expect most or all of the weak convection currently on radar to
dissipate as we lose surface heating this evening. The upper
trough to our northeast should help the surface boundary off the
coast. Drier air, defined in this case as sub 70 dew points, may
not make it too far south of Lake Pontchartrain.

Considering the slightly better moisture south of the lake, we may
see isolated convection there tomorrow afternoon as we reach
convective temperatures, but with little shear and sub optimal
lapse rates, threat of severe at this time appears to be pretty
low. Again tomorrow, storms should weaken as we lose surface
heating.

Won`t depart significantly from the NBM deterministic temperature
forecast, which is pretty much a compromise on minimum
temperatures, and on the warmer end for highs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Frontal boundary remains just offshore for the end of the
workweek, with the airmass gradually drying out. By the time we
get to Thursday/Friday, precipitable water values fall to about
the 10th percentile climatologically, around 1.10 inches. With
weak offshore flow, that should limit convection significantly.
Can`t rule out one or two storms along sea breeze boundaries, but
that is probably pushing things. Would not be surprised at all to
see high temperatures in the mid and upper 90s (at least) across
much of the area Thursday into Saturday, with very little inland
penetration of sea breezes. NBM numbers are trending on the warmer
end, and may even need to bump them up a degree or two in later
packages. Highs on Sunday will be very dependent on precipitation
trends, and don`t see that as a confident target of opportunity to
diverge from the NBM solution.

The center of an upper ridge is forecast to transit Interstate 40
to our north over the weekend. This places the local area under
easterly mid and low level flow, but the global models are
struggling with the details of how that may impact the local area.
The GFS solution would paint a fairly wet Sunday for the
Mississippi coast and eastern portions of southeast Louisiana,
while the ECMWF keeps that area comparatively dry, and better
rainfall to the west of the local area. Don`t have any real issues
with the NBM PoPs of 40-60 percent on Sunday, but confidence in
precipitation amounts is rather low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected through the
cycle. Winds will vary through the cycle but should remain rather
light, again outside of convection. Speaking of convection, the
best potential will be for the coastal terminals so carried TEMPOs
this afternoon respectively. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Low level flow should become offshore overnight tonight, and
remain primarily offshore until at least late Friday. Convection
should be the only real concern over the next 48 hours or so, and
that threat is fairly limited. Once onshore flow commences over
the weekend, we may start building swell. Depending on which
global solution becomes preferred, at least some potential for
higher than normal tide levels. The relatively good news in that
case is that astronomical tide levels will be decreasing this
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  89  65  89 /  10  10   0  10
BTR  74  93  71  93 /  10  20   0  20
ASD  73  93  70  93 /  20  20  10  20
MSY  78  92  77  92 /  10  40  10  30
GPT  74  92  72  92 /  20  10  10  10
PQL  71  95  69  94 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RW