788
FXUS64 KLIX 161734
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1234 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Generally speaking, upper level troughing is in place over the
southeastern US. It`s a split between decaying remnants of Francine
over MS and Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 just off the SC coast. A
mix of moist and dry air is wrapping around the broad low over MS.
Forecast PW`s are a bit lower than yesterday, 1.6-1.8", with highest
along the MS coast. CAMs and global models mirror this with their
solutions and thus the outgoing forecast depicts this. Although the
CWA isn`t outlooked by SPC for any severe wx, model soundings
indicate modest instability and cooler mid/upper level temps than
yesterday. Therefore, again wouldn`t be surprised to see a strong
storm or 2 today. Similar conditions expected tomorrow as the
remnants of Francine are absorbed by PTC8.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The remainder of the forecast should be a gradual transition back to
a drier pattern. Upper level ridge situated west of the CWA over TX
and the Central Plains will expand slightly east while broad
troughing over the southeastern CONUS moves farther east. This
should put the local area in a region of higher subsidence and thus
less to no rain chances. Temps might but slightly above normal but
not but by a degree or 2 as the ridge will still be west of the CWA
and not particularly strong.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at nearly all of the terminals through
the forecast period as a relatively dry airmass remains in place.
There will be a low risk of a shower or thunderstorm impacting a
terminal between 18z and 00z today, but the risk is too low to
include in the forecast. At MCB, fog and low stratus probabilities
remain decent given the light boundary layer flow and saturated
soils. Despite the limited fog and stratus development observed
this morning, have opted to include IFR stratus and MVFR fog from
10z to 14z tomorrow. Otherwise, MCB can also expect to see
continued VFR conditions. PG

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Terminals currently VFR. Main concern in the short term will be the
potential for low clouds and/or fog around sunrise. MVFR to IFR
conditions possible, especially at KHUM and KMCB with a small threat
of briefly LIFR. We are seeing some lowered visibilities at several
non-forecast points already (KPQL and KGAO), so amendments may be
necessary later. Cloud bases that develop around sunrise should lift
to near FL030 by late morning. Scattered convection is possible at
all terminals on Monday, primarily during the afternoon hours. IFR
visibilities would be the primary direct impact for terminals, if it
occurs, but instantaneous areal coverage will probably only be
around 30 percent. Most or all convection should dissipate near 00z
Tuesday, with VFR conditions during the evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 408 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Light winds and relaxed seas/waves expected through the entire
forecast period with surface ridge nearby. Although a brief period of
hazardous marine conditions are possible from a storm, generally
expect winds around 5 knots and seas/wave around a foot.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  84  67  86 /  20  40  20  20
BTR  72  89  72  91 /  10  50  30  20
ASD  70  86  70  88 /  20  50  30  20
MSY  73  86  73  88 /  30  50  30  20
GPT  71  85  71  86 /  40  40  20  20
PQL  71  88  71  90 /  50  50  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...ME