723
FXUS64 KLIX 162016
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
316 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A broad upper level low pressure system centered over the Deep
South will continue to influence the forecast on Tuesday. This
upper level feature will provide just enough forcing to tap into
the seasonal PWATS of around 1.8 inches and moderate instability
to produce scattered showers and a few thunderstorms during peak
heating hours. The convective activity will quickly wane after
sunset tomorrow, and expect to see dry conditions in place by the
late evening hours. By Wednesday, increasing negative vorticity
advection and subsidence will push PWATS significantly lower and
reduce the convective risk to 20 percent or less. Even that 20
percent will be a push given the strength of the ridge axis
building in from the west. Temperatures will be near to slightly
warmer than average each day with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Lows will dip into the upper 60s and lower 70s each night beneath
largely clear skies and light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Strong deep layer ridging will dominate the region throughout the
entirety of the long term period. This deep layer subsidence will
keep skies mostly clear and keep any rain chances at bay.
Temperatures will see a larger diurnal range as dewpoints fall
into the mid to upper 60s. Overall, the model spread is small in
the long term period, so have opted to stick with deterministic
values for temperatures. This results in highs in the upper 80s
and lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s each day.
The high temperatures are a few degrees above average, but extreme
heat will not be a concern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at nearly all of the terminals through
the forecast period as a relatively dry airmass remains in place.
There will be a low risk of a shower or thunderstorm impacting a
terminal between 18z and 00z today, but the risk is too low to
include in the forecast. At MCB, fog and low stratus probabilities
remain decent given the light boundary layer flow and saturated
soils. Despite the limited fog and stratus development observed
this morning, have opted to include IFR stratus and MVFR fog from
10z to 14z tomorrow. Otherwise, MCB can also expect to see
continued VFR conditions. PG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A broad area of high pressure will become more firmly established
across the coastal waters through the duration of the week and
into the weekend. The end result will be very light gradient flow
of 5 to 10 knots and seas of 1 to 2 feet through the entire
forecast period. Overall, maritime activity will not be impacted
by any significant weather over the next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  85  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
BTR  72  87  72  88 /  10  40  10  20
ASD  71  85  70  87 /  20  40  20  20
MSY  74  85  74  86 /  20  40  20  20
GPT  72  83  72  85 /  20  30  20  10
PQL  71  84  71  86 /  30  40  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG