Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
220 FXUS64 KLIX 242340 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 640 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Tonight through Thursday morning, a frontal system will be moving through our area, enhancing some rain chances through Thursday morning. Scattered showers will be possible on Thursday, especially Wednesday afternoon and evening. These storms will have the potential for lightning and some gusty winds (30-50mph) inside stronger storms. Temperatures Wednesday will still be around average or just above average with highs in the low to mid 90s. So make sure to stay hydrated tomorrow and prepare for the chance of rain! MSW && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday night) Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Thursday, as the tropical cyclone pushes toward Florida, rain chances will be increased mainly for our coastal MS and marine areas. The chances for rain for Thursday are very uncertain for the models, but generally have 30-40% PoPs for Thursday for MS coastal areas. Any storms that develop will have the potential for locally heavy rainfall and lightning. Some gusty winds (30-40mph) will also be possible. Friday through Sunday, conditions should be fairly dry overall given the lingering dry air over the area. Humidities will be a lot lower as well. Temperatures should be very pleasant as well with highs in the low to mid 80s for the weekend. MSW && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 VFR conditions across all terminals at forecast issuance time. Frontal boundary remains northwest of all terminals at this time, with most convection near the front. However, a few SHRA have developed over the last hour or so on the lake breeze boundary near KMSY. Expect those to dissipate in the next hour or two. Frontal boundary should sag slowly southward over the next 12 hours and may make it as far south as Lake Pontchartrain by midday Wednesday. Will carry VCSH/VCTS in multiple terminals during the day on Wednesday, but expect any direct impacts to produce only brief flight restrictions. Drier air should start filtering into the area beyond 00z Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Benign marine conditions with moderate easterly winds (10-15kts) through Thursday morning. As Tropical Storm Helene progresses toward Florida, marine conditions will deteriorate. Winds will increase to 20-25kts with northerly winds and small craft headlines will likely be necessary Thursday. Winds will ease to 10-15kts and westerly in direction Friday through the weekend. MSW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 69 84 65 82 / 40 50 10 10 BTR 74 91 69 87 / 20 40 10 10 ASD 72 89 69 85 / 10 30 20 20 MSY 75 89 73 85 / 10 30 10 10 GPT 73 89 69 85 / 0 30 40 30 PQL 72 92 71 87 / 0 40 60 40 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...RW MARINE...MSW