018
FXUS64 KLIX 191137
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
637 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Strong upper ridging was centered over Pennsylvania early this
morning, extending southwestward to Mississippi and Alabama.
Potential Tropical Cyclone One (PTC1) continued over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche. An upper
trough extended from northwest Ontario to the Pacific Northwest.

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the system in
the southwest Gulf continues to produce breezy to windy
conditions, mainly over the coastal waters early this morning.
Similar to yesterday, expect winds to pick up by mid-morning along
the Mississippi coast and much of southeast Louisiana south of
Interstate 10. It`s a borderline case based on forecast wind
speeds, but went ahead and issued a Wind Advisory from 16z to 00z
today for that area. Winds should relax somewhat beyond sunset,
and be a bit weaker on Thursday. Radar showing only very isolated
echoes this morning, considerably less than the previous 2
mornings. This is likely due to somewhat drier air working into
the area from the east. This was reflected in the 00z LIX upper
air sounding, which had a precipitable water value of 1.89 inches,
down from 2.06 inches on the Tuesday morning flight. Temperatures
at 3 AM CDT ranged from the mid and upper 70s across the northern
half of the area to the lower 80s in the New Orleans area.

The upper ridge to the northeast will gradually shift south and
southwestward toward the area, and be centered over Kentucky by
Thursday afternoon. This will gradually bring more dry air into
the area, especially to the north of the Interstate 10/12
corridors, where forecast soundings have precipitable water values
falling below 1.5 inches by Thursday afternoon, perhaps as low as
an inch over southwest Mississippi. This should mean quite a bit
less areal coverage of showers and storms compared to the last
couple of days, probably later developing, and much less of a
heavy rain threat.

With less precipitation expected and somewhat more sunshine today,
we should see much of the area get to around 90 degrees, and
possibly a couple degrees warmer tomorrow.

Will extend the Coastal Flood products for one more high tide
cycle during the day on Thursday. The highest water levels are
likely to occur during this afternoon`s high tide cycle, but the
probabilistic guidance indicates enough of a threat for issues to
continue it Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The upper ridge is forecast to continue to build southwestward and
be centered near Memphis on Saturday, and then extend from New
Mexico to the north central Gulf of Mexico by Monday. While we
aren`t likely to remain completely dry, we should get into more of
a diurnally driven pattern where we get isolated to scattered
areal coverage of showers and storms that develop during the mid
and late afternoon hours. In other words, a more usual summertime
pattern. This will also allow high temperatures to heat up a bit,
with lower and middle 90s expected for much of the area. Humidity
levels will be high enough that Heat Advisories may be necessary,
perhaps as early as Saturday or Sunday, for portions of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Most terminals currently VFR, but there will be occasional MVFR
ceilings with bases near FL020-025 this morning. Radar showing
isolated SHRA moving west-northwestward between KGPT and KASD at
issuance time. Briefly brought visibilities down to 2SM at KGPT
around 1045z, but improved quickly. Also produced a 28 knot gust
during that SHRA.

Still will be the potential for SHRA/TSRA at most terminals today,
with the possible exception of KMCB, but areal coverage is
expected to be much less extensive than the past couple of days.
Any impacts will be brief, but IFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings
will be possible. Will carry VCSH/VCTS as appropriate. Probably
the more widespread concern will be for gusty easterly or
southeasterly winds, likely in the 25-30 knot range, from the
Interstate 10 corridor southward. This would include
KGPT/KASD/KNEW/KMSY/KHUM. Perhaps a bit less wind at KHDC and
KBTR, in the 20-25 knot range for peak gusts.

Expect any precipitation to dissipate near sunset if not sooner.
Wind speeds should also diminish to 10 to 15 knots or less toward
sunset, with primarily VFR conditions expected overnight into
Thursday morning.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Will continue the Gale Warning and Small Craft Advisories as
earlier issued. As PTC 1 moves inland over Mexico late tonight or
Thursday, the pressure gradient should weaken and allow winds and
seas to slowly subside Thursday into Friday. We may still need
Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines for portions of the waters
into Friday evening before the hazardous conditions relent
entirely. As the winds slowly relax, the coastal flooding threat
will as well, with water levels along the coast returning to more
normal levels by Thursday night or Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  70  90  72 /  30   0   0   0
BTR  91  76  93  76 /  30   0  30   0
ASD  89  75  91  75 /  40  10  30  20
MSY  89  80  90  80 /  50  10  50  20
GPT  89  76  91  76 /  40  20  30  20
PQL  91  74  93  74 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ068.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ056>060-064>070-076>078-080-087>090.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ058-060-
     066>069-077-080-082-084-086-087.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ070-076-078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-577.

     Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ570-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ570-
     572-575.

MS...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ086>088.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ087-088.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ086.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-577.

     Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ572-
     575.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW